Bypoll wins, a booster dose for Kejriwal, AAP after Delhi shocker

New Delhi: Months after its shocking defeat in Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has made a significant comeback by registering big victories in the by-elections in Punjab and Gujarat.

More than Ludhiana West in Punjab, Gopal Italia's win from Visavadar in Gujarat is a huge morale booster for the AAP and its supremo, Arvind Kejriwal, given that it has come from the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.

Visavadar has not been a BJP bastion since 2007, despite the saffron party ruling Gujarat consecutively for the past 30 years. AAP's victorious candidate in the 2022 assembly elections, Bhupendra Bhayani, had joined the ruling BJP in February 2024.

It has been seen over the years that a ruling party rarely loses a bypoll. Hence, the AAP's win against a formidable opponent could be considered significant. With this, the AAP has emerged as the main challenger to the BJP in Gujarat, pushing the Congress to third place.

Kejriwal has already indicated that the fight in Gujarat is now directly between the AAP and the BJP, accusing the Congress of enjoying a cosy relationship with the ruling party.

For Kejriwal too, it is an opportunity to get back at Modi and Shah after his imprisonment in Tihar Jail in the Delhi excise policy case.

He is now expected to spend considerable time in Gujarat in the run-up to the 2027 assembly elections. After the Delhi defeat, Kejriwal had shifted his base to Punjab, drawing criticism for virtually running the AAP government in the border state. In political circles, it is well known that Punjab is being run from Delhi. Delhi's interference in governance has also been quite visible in the recent past. While Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann is said to be just the nominal head, the real power and decision-making authority rested with Kejriwal, who has visibly become the de facto head of the government.

It is important for Kejriwal and the AAP to retain Punjab not only to hold on to its national party status but also to continue to rule at least one state in the country to stay politically relevant.

Sanjeev Arora's win in Ludhiana West has enabled the AAP to beat its opponents in the perception battle, given that many had suggested the ruling party was facing massive anti-incumbency against its government.

The rise of the AAP is clearly at the cost of the Congress, which appears to have ceded its space in many states. Apart from Gujarat, the AAP is also eyeing Goa and could field a substantial number of candidates in the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar.

The only solace for the Congress is its win from Nilambur in Kerala, where it defeated the ruling CPI(M) months ahead of the assembly elections in 2026.