After securing a third term, is Xi Jinping looking at a fourth or even fifth term?

New Delhi: China's future will rest on what Chinese president Xi Jinping does over the next five years after getting elected for an unprecedented third term at the ongoing 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that will end on October 22.

Xi and his new team will be ready to roll out what is being seen as dramatic and drastic measures over the next half-decade to anoint China as an economic and geopolitical power. 

The bigger question is- will it surpass US and Russia? 

The naysayers are more than those who believe Xi can grow further in power on the international stage- than the all-powerful leader within China- but it primarily depends on three factors. 

The Chinese currency yuan needs to be transformed into an international currency; the military prowess of China has to surpass Russians and Americans and the dream of unification of China has to be fulfilled to parachute Xi to the highest position within China to be able to remain in power for a fourth or a fifth term as president. 

All three tasks are difficult propositions given China's economic crisis, the difficulties in trying to decouple the yuan and dollar and the inability to damage the dollar till the time the currencies remain interlinked and its own dependence stand in the way of ambitions for global economic independence for China. 

Small steps have been taken by Xi till now- the first being increasing state control over financial institutions. The party congress has the participation of key officials from the banking sector who are politburo members and others from the central committee but their presence is a giveaway of the fact that Xi's assertion and consolidation of power are not limited to a political and military audience, but also to the economic drivers of his country. 

The biggest economic challenge comes from the US which is acting tough by imposing sanctions freely on Russia sending a clear message to those countries who develop interests inimical to Washington, like China, who can be deprived of access to US markets, dollar payments and financial institutions. 

Beijing cannot afford to go the Moscow route, and Xi is aware which is why his challenge will be to try to make the yuan an international currency which seems an uphill battle. 

The second battle for Xi will be to upgrade his military. The modernisation of the People's Liberation Army began in 2016 with a focus on the technological upgradation of the forces, lesser dependence on foot soldiers and strengthening the coordinated and joint action of airforce, navy, rocket force, space force, and cyber armies with the ground forces. 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown that hybrid warfare is the way to assert military prowess but the failures of the Russian army are once again lessons for Xi that this model can fail too despite the capabilities. 

This brings the focus to the third point which is the strategic ability to win a war. This will only be possible when China is able to assert its own conquest over Taiwan first, which it calls an internal issue, but has so far proved to be a difficult proposition. This was demonstrated recently when China's threat of military action did not deter Nancy Pelosi, US House of Representatives, from making a successful visit to Taiwan in August. Xi conducted extensive military drills to threaten Taiwan and its allies but neither had the strategy or the power to initiate a real war.