Explained: How and why Modi govt gave in to Caste Census push

New Delhi: After years of resistance, the Narendra Modi government has done a political somersault: the Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved the inclusion of caste enumeration in the upcoming national census. 

What appears to be a historic step for data transparency may also be a well-timed strategy to undercut the rising momentum of caste-driven political mobilisation led by opposition parties.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has long been averse to a full-fledged caste census, fearing that it would fracture the carefully nurtured pan-Hindutva identity, especially in politically sensitive states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. 

As NewsDrum reported in early 2023, top BJP leaders believed that reintroducing caste in the census would trigger a surge in competitive demands among dominant OBC (Other Backward Class) groups, many of whom are crucial components of the party’s support base.

And yet, more than two years later, the Centre has greenlit a caste census, appearing to embrace a political plank once deemed dangerous. Why now?

Preempting the opposition

At its core, the BJP’s sudden approval is a preemptive strike. With the 2024 general elections behind and the 2025 Bihar assembly elections on the horizon, the ruling party appears to be countering a rising tide of demands for increased OBC reservations, caste-based resource allocation, and social justice narratives, spearheaded by regional parties and the Congress.

The opposition had already sharpened its pitch: conduct a caste census, expose under-representation, and use the findings to push for enhanced quotas. 

The Congress’s Raipur resolution of 2023 had formally embraced this line. Regional parties like JD(U), RJD, DMK, and SP had built a steady drumbeat around the idea of "Jitni Abadi, Utna Haq" (Representation proportional to population).

Had the government continued its resistance, it risked allowing the opposition to monopolise the social justice agenda. By initiating the process itself, the BJP can now dictate the pace, framing, and delivery of the exercise.

A strategic trap?

While critics hail the Cabinet decision as a long-overdue embrace of reality, some political observers believe the government is setting a trap.

By folding caste enumeration into the national census (which is yet to begin due to a series of postponements since 2020), the Centre maintains full control. 

As per existing administrative norms, the census cannot begin before three months of boundary freezing, which was extended to June 30, 2025. That pushes the earliest feasible start to October, with at least 11 months required for two-phase completion. 

A complicated legacy

The BJP’s caution is not unfounded. History shows how caste data has dramatically shifted India’s political landscape.

The last caste census was in 1931, conducted by the British. It formed the foundation for the Mandal Commission’s explosive conclusion that OBCs constituted 52% of India’s population. When Prime Minister VP Singh implemented 27% OBC quotas in the 1990s, it birthed a new political order—and deepened the fault lines of identity politics.

The BJP, then a marginal force, responded by reviving the Ram Mandir movement to consolidate upper-caste Hindus, a counter to the Mandal surge. Over time, it began inducting OBC leaders and restructuring its own caste representation—an internal mandalisation to compete in post-Mandal India.

To reopen this terrain is to play with fire. The BJP knows it. But now, it has chosen to light the match, carefully.

A Census shadowed by delays

It’s important to note that the census itself has been stalled for five years. Originally scheduled for 2021, the pandemic first delayed it. Then came administrative boundary changes. Then political opposition to the NPR-NRC-CAA matrix, which many feared could target minorities.

Despite budgetary allocations in Union Budgets, the enumeration never commenced. Critics accused the government of dragging its feet. As late as December 2023, the Home Ministry told Parliament the census had been postponed “until further orders.”

Even as a digital-first census, with mobile apps and self-enumeration portals, awaits rollout, logistical preparedness remains questionable.

Caste vs citizen

There’s also a deeper philosophical contradiction.

The BJP’s governance narrative rests on a singular national identity, citizen first, caste later. The reintroduction of caste enumeration goes against the grain of that messaging, bringing back the language of divisions and sub-quotas.

Yet, it is increasingly clear that ignoring caste doesn’t erase it. In fact, as seen in Bihar and Karnataka, data-driven caste empowerment is politically popular.

By taking the reins, the Modi government hopes to reclaim narrative control. But it walks a tightrope: overplay it, and risk alienating upper-caste backers; underplay it, and cede ground to Mandal 2.0 forces.