India should be worried about the ongoing crisis in Sri Lanka

New Delhi: The Sri Lankan crisis has reached another crescendo when hundreds of thousands of protestors have taken over the President's office, Prime Minister's Office, State Broadcast Centre, and many more government buildings. The Sri Lankan army is out of barracks, on the streets along with the paramilitary and police and using teargas shells and firing over the heads of the protestors in which one protestor is killed and dozens injured. Sri Lankan Prime Minister has instructed the military to restore order. Still, the situation remains out of control, and people refuse to leave the streets or powerhouse buildings until Both Gotabaya Rajapakse and Ranil Wickremesinghe resign.

India is watching closely

India is waiting and watching the situation. India so far has taken a cautious and people-friendly approach. After learning lessons in the past, India is not ready to intervene directly despite the demand from some sections of Sri Lankan society. India has concentrated on humanitarian aid, which has crossed around 3.5 billion dollars, including Line of Credit.

India wants the Sri Lankan people to look for a stable interim government that could take decisions and coordinate with the external world. India wants to help in the agriculture and health sectors, but the decision needs to be taken locally by Sri Lankan leadership. To bring back a sense of confidence amongst the population, some analysts suggest a way forward, "payment against work", like the MGNREGA project in India.

India's foreign minister Mr. Jaishankar, speaking to reporters outside the Thiruvananthapuram airport early this week said, "We have been very supportive of Sri Lanka. We are trying to help and are always very helpful where they are concerned. "They are working through their problems right now, so we have to wait and see what they do."

Analysts say India cannot sit on the fence and must do whatever it can for a smooth transition of power in Colombo and a speedy redressal of the leading cause of the Sri Lankan crisis. Else it could cause significant disruption to the normal functioning of the Colombo Port and trade. Lingering on the issue will be disadvantageous to India's interests. The Colombo port handles over 30 per cent of India's container traffic and 60 per cent of its trans-shipment. There will be an additional issue of refugees coming to India. 
 
Expectations are too much from India

Sri Lankan protestors are all looking forward to India for support even though no one is sure what next? It is difficult to predict how the simmering protests that started around March 2022 will shape the future. People lead the demonstrations, and there is hardly a committee or leadership running the show. A few demands are also confusing as the people ask for resignation from President and Prime Minister and want the Speaker of the parliament house to be an active President. Critics feel that even the Speaker belongs to the Rajapakse clan, and the party has 100 plus parliamentarians. India is worried that present leaderless protests can be dangerous as some fringe elements can take advantage of this ongoing uncertainty.

As the protests grow without anyone to lead them, there have been incidents of violence, and hundreds of people are fleeing Sri Lanka. People expect India's intervention. The continuing crisis, violence, and expectations from the Sri Lankans should worry India. The direct impact of Sri Lankan refugees entering India and the economic crisis will affect India and its business. More so, the neighbouring Tamil Nadu and Kerela will have direct implications.

Anti-government protests started in March 2022 but spread by June 2021, farmers and trade unions criticized the government for declaring a ban on imported chemical fertilizer, drastically threatening crop yields. By then, the country was facing a dire balance of payments crisis, and the ban was supposed to save the US $ 500 million in subsidies. Sinhalese Buddhist farmers voted overwhelmingly for the Rajapaksas, which may have been why they were initially opposed to protesting Gotabaya and Mahinda directly. Fear was another reason. In the past, some journalists who criticized the Rajapakse were killed.

But this time, the farmers' agitation took root and spread among the middle classes. In March, several women activists supporting the opposition led a spontaneous protest outside the President's private residence. The following month, protesters congregated outside the Presidential Secretariat. Subsequent protest sites were set up throughout the island, and violence against protestors outside Temple Trees led to Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa's ouster on May 9. The presidential secretariat protests were on their 92nd day when President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled.

Difficult days for an ordinary citizen

For a common man or woman, it is a difficult day ahead as they struggle to have daily rations for their family, electricity and drinking water at home, and cooking gas and gas for their vehicle. With the present economic crisis, all these essential items have become a luxury and unavailable, mounting frustration amongst the citizens. Inflation and black marketing are at their highest ebb. Despite some humanitarian support from India, Japan, World Bank, and others, solutions are nowhere on the site.

State of Emergency

On July 13, Sri Lanka's PM Ranil Wickremesinghe imposed a nationwide state of emergency and a curfew in the Western Province as protesters raided his office and other state buildings are demanding that national leaders resign. This comes after President. Rajapaksa, who was expected to step down by the end of the day, fled to the Maldives and appointed Wickremesinghe as acting leader during his absence.

Rajapaksa vowed to stand down following an escalation in protests over the weekend, but he has yet to submit his resignation letter. Some media houses quoting government sources suggested that Rajapaksa may be heading to Singapore or UAE. The delay in the resignation letter is that he wants his extended family to reach safe places, and a safe passage needs to be given to his family. He also wants to go to his final destination from the Maldives before he finally resigns.

All parliamentarians' meeting held on July 13 scheduled for July 20 for an indirect vote to elect a new president who will serve until 2024 and could also possibly indicate a new PM for the Parliament's approval.

On July 9, protesters stormed and occupied the presidential offices and both the President's and prime minister's official residences. YouTube and social media are all with videos of protesters swimming in the President's pool, resting on his bed, using his gymnasium, and eating meals in his pantry and dining table after overcoming barricades, tear gas, and beating. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's private residence was set ablaze. The sites are like sight scenes opened for the public thronging since early a weak to find out of curiosity what lies behind the most protected places in the country that they never got a
chance to visit.

Sri Lanka Debt

Sri Lanka is suffering from its debt payments and now cannot buy items from abroad. This has affected the currency and economy of Sri Lanka. According to Sri Lankan officials, Sri Lanka's government has more than $51billion in foreign debt, $6.5billion of which is owed to China. China, seen as a friend of the Rajapakse family, is silent on how to restructure the debt and support the country with humanitarian aid.

The Sri Lankan government is getting some support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) about a possible $3bn (£2.5bn) loan, which will be on higher interest rates and taxes. The World Bank may lend Sri Lanka $ 700 million, and India has offered at least $1.9 billion other than two billion in humanitarian aid support.

To have loans from IMF, the world bank, or India, Sri Lanka needs a stable government to be in place. So far, what can be done is unclear until some stability and an interim government are formed in Colombo to run the day-to-day activities.