Is exodus from BJP an indication of imminent poll outcome in Karnataka?

New Delhi: Over the past few days several top Bharatiya Janata Party leaders in Karnataka, including former chief minister Jagadish Shettar and deputy CM Laxman Savadi, have jumped ship and joined the Congress in a seeming indication that the saffron unit may be facing a tough time securing victory in the forthcoming Assembly polls.

The BJP has been putting up a brave front and has claimed that it will not be facing any difficulty by the desertions from its ranks.

Despite the fact that the two tall leaders left BJP only for the tickets, the battle of perception among the masses is being won by the grand old party with two high-profile entries into the Congress.

While the Congress has been able to attract high-profile and top leaders of the BJP, the saffron front has so far not seen any notable joining from the opposition side.

The BJP is fearful that rebellion by these senior leaders is likely to adversely affect its prospects in the forthcoming Assembly polls. The saffron unit is desperately trying to avoid a fate like Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls where its candidates lost in several constituencies due to rebels filing nominations.

Both Shettar and Savadi are prominent Lingayat faces to quit the BJP in recent days. Their joining the Congress has also improved the grand old party’s reach amidst the most politically dominant Lingayat community in the state. The Congress also hopes that with these two joining the party, it would be able to take on the Lingayat strongman of the BJP, BS Yediyurappa.

The induction of the two leaders is expected to benefit Congress in several constituencies surrounding the Hubli-Dharwad region as well as the areas dominated by the Lingayat community. The grand old party is desperately seeking a poll victory in major states and it feels that Congress’ best chance can come in Karnataka.  

A section in the BJP feels that these leaders breaking from saffron ranks would help the party in removing anti-incumbency just like in Gujarat where several senior leaders, including former CMs and Ministers, were denied tickets. This exit is also expected to help BJP create a distance from the allegations of 40 per cent commission government, sources said.  

But the BJP leadership knows that it now has a battle on two fronts in Karnataka, to counter the anti-incumbency of the Basavaraj Bommai government and to overcome the rebel factor in at least 40 constituencies in the state. The supporters of Shettar and Savadi are expected to file nominations as Congress or rebel candidates in at least 40-odd constituencies, creating a further headache for the saffron party. 

Interestingly, these rebel BJP leaders have so far desisted from making any direct attack against the top three leaders of the saffron front, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and party chief JP Nadda.

However, they have launched an all-out attack against the state BJP leaders terming their ouster as a betrayal after decades of service to the saffron party. This is also being viewed as a failure of the BJP’s state leadership to rein in and manage rebellion within the saffron ranks.

The 224-member Karnataka Legislative Assembly is scheduled for polls in a single phase on May 10 and the counting of votes will take place on May 13.

Karnataka was the first state to have elected a BJP government in South India and is considered to be immensely important for the BJP which plans to expand its base in southern India. 

The saffron party knows that it would face an uphill task in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls if it faces a loss in the Assembly election in 2023. A victory will do wonders for the morale of the party cadre, while a loss will set us back majorly, sources pointed out.

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi set to seek his third term in 2024, the saffron front is treading cautiously.  The return to power in Karnataka will be crucial as the party plans to expand its footprint in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The state elects 28 MPs to the lower house of the Parliament. 

The BJP had secured 25 seats with one seat secured by an NDA ally in the 2019 general elections and the saffron unit hopes to retain its strength of seats from Karnataka in the 2024 general elections.