Is JP Nadda going back to Himachal Pradesh?

New Delhi: A few days ago, pictures of union minister JP Nadda with former Himachal Pradesh chief ministers Shanta Kumar and Prem Kumar Dhumal had set off a buzz that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president is heading back to the state politics.

Prior to his separate meetings with Kumar and Dhumal, Nadda braved rains and dense fog to visit disaster-affected areas in Mandi district of the hill state.

Mandi has been the worst-affected district in the state after the recent multiple cloudbursts and heavy rainfall that triggered flash floods.

Though the meetings were said to be in preparation for the next assembly elections due in 2027, Nadda's sudden interest in Himachal politics coincides with the hectic developments within the BJP over the selection of its new national president.

Nadda had completed his tenure back in January 2023, but got an extension to oversee the party’s preparedness for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and later again to continue till the new chief was appointed.

Nadda, 64, took over as the BJP national president in January 2020, replacing union home minister Amit Shah.

He had been the party's working president from June 2019 to January 2020. Presently, he is also the BJP's leader of the house in the Rajya Sabha.

Nadda was also the minister of health and family welfare in the first Narendra Modi government 2014 to 2019. In the third Modi government, he again holds the portfolio of health and family welfare in addition to chemicals and fertilisers.

Prior to moving to national politics, Nadda had been an important part of the BJP structure in Himachal Pradesh but always maintained a low profile.

His political career began on a high note as he was named leader of the opposition after getting elected to the Himachal Pradesh legislative assembly from Bilaspur for the first time in 1993. He became the health and family welfare minister in the first Dhumal government in 1998. Nadda lost his seat in the 2003 elections but got re-elected in 2007. 

In the second term of the Dhumal government, Nadda held the portfolios of forest, environment, science and technology.

In 2010, he became the national general secretary of the BJP after resigning from the council of ministers in the hill state.

Nadda did not seek re-election to the state assembly in 2012, and instead got elected to the Rajya Sabha from Himachal Pradesh the same year.

It is obvious that after serving the BJP as its national president, he will not go back to Himachal Pradesh to work under any leader. 

Given that Himachal Pradesh has for many years now thrown out the incumbent governments, the BJP is expected to return to power in the 2027 assembly elections. 

In that case, Nadda, a Brahmin, is definitely going to be the strongest claimant of the chief minister's post. 

If that happens, Himachal Pradesh will have a Brahmin chief minister after nearly 35 years. Veteran BJP leader Shanta Kumar was the last Brahmin chief minister from March 1990 to December 1992. His previous term as the chief minister was from June 1977 to February 1980.

According to the 2011 census, Rajputs constitute around 33% of Himachal Pradesh's population, while Brahmins are about 18%. That explains the domination of Rajputs in the state's politics.

Since the present BJP leadership is known for going against the trend, Nadda's chances of assuming the reins of the hill state are high.

The equation could change only if the power and influence of Modi and Shah diminish. That seems to be a big ask for now.