Is the NDA set to expand following Presidential & VP polls?

New Delhi: The break in the opposition ranks over electing the next President and Vice President may not be restricted to just these polls. The warming up of some non-BJP parties towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi's choice of Droupadi Murmu to succeed Ram Nath Kovind for the post of President and Jagdeep Dhankar to succeed Venkaiah Naidu as the next Vice President, perhaps, could pave the way for expansion of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Of course, the non-NDA parties like the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress Party, Telugu Desam, Akali Dal, Mayawati-led BSP and allies of the Samajwadi Party like Om Prakash Rajbhar would not admit that their decision to back Murmu or Dhankar is a step towards eventually embracing the NDA.

But, one does see signs of thaw provided by these elections. The stage appears to be set for aligning with Modi on an issue-by-issue basis though a formal handshake may be put off for a later date.

These parties are seeing the BJP as the dominant pole in the national politics in the run-up to the 2024 parliamentary elections. The BJP too sees them as electorally strong parties in their respective states.

The Congress and other Opposition parties, which are upset by the behaviour of these regional groups, believe that Modi has managed to bring them over to their side by twisting their arms with the help of Central agencies. But these regional groups say they do not see any political advantage in opposing the BJP blindly when Modi's decisions are politically correct as far as they are concerned.

In this context, the going-ons in the Shiv Sena is a separate episode altogether. First, ahead of the July 18 Presidential polls, the Eknath Shinde-led revolt caused a change of government with the help of the BJP.

That left Uddhav Thackeray control over his party in shambles. Even his move to back Murmu to prevent escalation of the split in the Sena's parliamentary wing did not stop a majority of the MPs backing their MLAs' demand for a complete realignment with the BJP in Maharashtra before the upcoming civic polls.

Of particular interest has been the warming up of ties between Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and Modi. The Biju Janata Dal was delighted at Murmu's nomination because of her Mayurbhanj background. Patnaik realised her experience as a junior minister in the BJD-BJP ministry he headed once and as governor of Jharkhand was a plus point for her elevation as India's first tribal President.

For the BJP, Patnaik has proved to be electorally invincible in Odisha since he became CM in 2000 with his clean, corruption-free image. The BJP's bid to play a tough opposition have so far failed to excite the masses who have stood by Patnaik who broke away the alliance with it before the 2009 polls.

Modi has been exasperated with his party colleagues over their inability to lessen Patnaik's hold over the Odisha voters. This has led to the BJP realising that "if you can't beat the BJD, at least get to work with you at the centre."

Patnaik has refused to tie down himself in any anti-BJP grouping, keeping his options open for realignment with the BJP.

Patnaik has managed to have excellent rapport with Modi who appreciates Odisha CM's "practical approach" to development and politics though he poses a tough challenge to the BJP's ambitions in his state.

With Modi pleased with the BJD's support for the Presidential and Vice Presidential elections, the BJP could consider offering the post of Lok Sabha Deputy Speaker, which has remained vacant since the new Lok Sabha was constituted in 2019. Normally, the post has either gone to an Opposition party or a friendly party. If the post is conceded to the BJD, senior leader Bhartuhari Mahatab could make it.

In the case of Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, he has always chosen to be on the right side of the BJP. This is in spite of the BJP flexing its muscles to emerge as the main Opposition party in his state. N Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party has been unable to fight back to regain its status, hamstrung by cases against its leaders since they lost power in 2019. Naidu has several times rued his decision to break away from the BJP in 2018 over special status for Andhra Pradesh.  His efforts to return to the NDA-fold have not been reciprocated because of Modi's relationship with Jagan.

The Akali Dal, which could not stem the tide in favour of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Punjab Assembly polls, is also on a rethink course on its options. With the farm reforms bills away from the path, the Akali Dal leadership is not averse to returning to the NDA at an appropriate time in the near future.

There is already a lot of buzz about the future plans of the Trinamool Congress. Disappointed with the way the Presidential polls have turned out, Mamata Banerjee appears to be re-examining her options. Mamata has purportedly realised the futility of taking on Modi endlessly with no visible gains for her at the national level. That is why what happened in the Raj Bhavan in Darjeeling has set tongues wagging.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma travelled to Darjeeling on the invitation of Jagdeep Dhankar, who was then still governor of West Bengal, on July 13. There, at the Raj Bhavan, Dhankar also asked Mamata  to come over as she had arrived in the hills to attend the Gorkhaland Territorial Administration swearing-in ceremony. Mamata and Sarma spend two hours over high tea. The meeting of the CMs  triggered intense speculation.

That is because Himanta Biswas Sarma, who is considered to be very close to Home Minister Amit Shah, may have come to talk to her about supporting Murmu in the presidential election on behalf of the BJP. However, after her interactions with him, Mamata made it clear that there was no talk of politics.

But the big buzz is will Mamata settle for a quiet patch up with the BJP if it means less trouble for her nephew and Diamond Harbour MP Abhishek Banerjee from the Central law enforcement agencies, which are probing allegations of corruption and money laundering against several Trinamool leaders.