Nagrota bypoll: BJP faces internal unease as Omar apparently gives a walkover

New Delhi: The 2024 Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections clearly established the National Conference (NC) and the BJP as the two dominant political forces in the Union Territory. The NC swept the Kashmir Valley, while the BJP captured almost all Hindu-majority constituencies in the Jammu region. The Congress was pushed to a distant third and failed to win a single seat in the Hindu-majority areas of Jammu, where it was once a force to reckon with.

Polling for the two by-elections in Budgam and Nagrota constituencies, held on November 11, will test whether this political stranglehold of the NC and the BJP remains intact or has begun to weaken.

In the Jammu region, the Nagrota bypoll is seen as a test not only of the BJP’s electoral strength but also of the influence of its local leadership. The party has fielded Devyani Rana, daughter of the late Devender Rana.

Devender Rana, contesting on a BJP ticket, won the 2024 Assembly election from Nagrota with a record margin of 31,000 votes.

During the Assembly elections, both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah campaigned aggressively in Jammu, addressing rallies even in remote areas. That campaign paid off, with the BJP winning 29 seats. This time, however, as the bypoll coincided with the Bihar elections, none of the party’s star campaigners, not even Modi or Shah, campaigned for Devyani.

Devender Rana had built strong personal relations with a large section of voters, which helped him win the 2014 Assembly election from Nagrota on an NC ticket despite the BJP wave across Jammu at the time. He emerged as a powerful local leader and, while there was some resentment within the party, it largely remained subdued. This time, in his absence, those voices have grown louder.

The BJP’s decision to give the ticket to Devyani Rana triggered strong resentment among local leaders. Nand Kishore, brother of MP Jugal Kishore Sharma and a strong contender for the seat, protested sharply against the move. Senior BJP leaders tried to placate his supporters and, though Nand Kishore himself refrained from speaking publicly against the decision, his displeasure was evident.

The political grapevine suggests that, after being denied the ticket, Nand Kishore sent feelers to Omar Abdullah, expressing willingness to contest on an NC ticket. However, Omar did not respond to those overtures.

Denying the ticket to Nand Kishore needs to be seen in the context of the Rana–Omar relationship. Devender Rana was not only a close friend of Omar Abdullah but also part of his inner circle. As Omar’s advisor during his tenure as Chief Minister (2008–2014), it was widely said that “the buck stopped at Rana’s office.” Despite their fallout after Rana joined the BJP, Omar attended his funeral and later told the Assembly: “No one in this House knew Rana better than I did. If I had known he was so seriously ill, I would never have used harsh words against him during electioneering.”

It appears that Omar Abdullah chose not to put up a tough contest in the first election of his late friend’s daughter, as a mark of respect to his departed colleague. By fielding Shamim Begum from Nagrota, Omar seemed to signal this intent clearly.

The Nagrota constituency has around 98,000 voters, of which approximately 20,000 are Muslim. In purely political terms, the NC’s chances of winning are minimal.

Although Ajat Shatru Singh in 1996 and Devender Rana in 2014 won on NC tickets, both were Hindus and benefited from the NC’s Muslim vote. The religious profile of the electorate remains a major factor in the present political set-up.

It seems Omar Abdullah has effectively given a walkover to Devyani Rana.

While Devyani may not face a formidable opponent, caste equations and internal party resentment could still work against her. Brahmins form the largest vote bloc, around 22,000 votes. Jugal Kishore Sharma won from Nagrota in 2002 and 2008. In recent weeks, Devyani has been seen surrounded by Rajput leaders, who form her core campaign team. The Rajput vote in the constituency is about 8,000.

The discontent among Brahmins could erode the BJP’s traditional support base. Devyani is believed to be banking on a sympathy wave, but how much confidence she has earned from the Brahmin community remains to be seen. Even if the contest appears a virtual walkover for her, the margin of victory will reflect the extent of damage caused by internal dissent and how much the caste factor influenced the outcome.

By choosing not to contest from a Hindu-majority seat, the Congress may have avoided another defeat, but it also underscores the party’s weakened ground position, despite having ruled the erstwhile state for longer than even the National Conference.