NewsDrum AQI forecast: Delhi AQI likely to hit 330 as crop burning spikes

New Delhi: Delhi’s air looks set to languish in the “very poor” zone on 5 November, according to NewsDrum’s farm‑fire‑based forecast. 

Being the first Indian outlet to offer daily AQI projections based on satellite‑monitored stubble burning, the NewsDrum AQI forecast would continue through the month to give readers a forward look at air quality rather than a post‑mortem.

The model links Punjab’s previous‑day crop‑residue fires with the next day’s 24‑hour average Air Quality Index (AQI) for Delhi. 

On  November 4, satellites detected about 321 farm‑fire incidents in Punjab (up from 256 the day before). When that figure is fed into our regression, it yields a predicted AQI of around 330 for Wednesday at 4 pm. 

That keeps the capital firmly in the 301‑400 “very poor” band. The pattern has been painfully clear since mid‑October: every time farm‑fire counts surge, Delhi’s AQI climbs within a day. 

When incidents briefly fell to 28 on 24 October, the AQI dipped to 275, only to rebound to 324 two days later as burning resumed.

The CREAMS bulletin for November 4 shows that Punjab recorded far more fires than any other northern state. Earlier this week, when Punjab logged 256 fires on November 3, the all‑India bulletin put Delhi’s AQI at 291 (“Poor”), underscoring how quickly smoke travels downwind. Our model is deliberately simple: it treats the previous day’s fire count as the main predictor of the following day’s AQI. 

If winds strengthen or rain arrives, the real AQI could shift up or down by 25–30 points, but the method has been reliable in capturing the broad trend.

Delhiites should therefore brace for another hazy day. With farm‑fire activity likely to continue through the peak harvest window, NewsDrum will update readers each evening on the relationship between countryside fires and city smog.

Also read: Exclusive: Data links Punjab’s fire spikes to Delhi’s pollution within 24 hours
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Disclaimer: NewsDrum stands behind its farm‑fire‑based AQI forecasts because they draw on real satellite data and a clear, demonstrable correlation between residue burning and Delhi’s next‑day air quality. 

At the same time, we’re transparent about their limits. Even when the model is directionally accurate, actual AQI readings can drift 25–30 points either side of the prediction as wind speed, humidity and local emissions influence how pollutants disperse. That’s why we publish both the prediction and an expected range.