NewsDrum AQI forecast: Delhi’s air to stay very poor with Tuesday AQI around 325

New Delhi: Delhi’s air is poised to remain in the “very poor” band on 4 November, according to NewsDrum’s new farm‑fire‑based forecast.

NewsDrum is the first outlet in India to publish daily AQI predictions built directly on satellite‑detected stubble‑burning data, giving readers a forward look at air quality rather than a post‑mortem.

The pedictions will be pubished through the month of November.

The model, which correlates Punjab’s previous‑day stubble‑burning incidents with the Capital’s next‑day Air Quality Index (AQI), projects an average AQI of about 325 for Tuesday, when the 4 pm average data is released.

That places the city solidly in the 301-400 “very poor” range and continues a grim trend: every spike in farm fires since mid‑October has been followed by a deterioration in Delhi’s air.

The prediction comes on the heels of a sharp rise in farm‑fire detections. The CREAMS bulletin for 3 November tallied 256 active paddy‑residue‑burning events in Punjab, a big jump from 178 fires recorded on 2 November, and noted that Punjab alone accounted for more than half of the 446 incidents across six northern states that day.

NewsDrum’s model is intentionally simple: it uses the previous day’s satellite‑detected farm‑fire count as the main predictor of the following day’s AQI in Delhi.

If winds pick up or unexpected rain arrives, the real AQI could deviate by 10‑15 points, but the model’s track record suggests it captures the broad trend.

Delhiites should therefore brace for another hazy day.

With farm fires likely to continue through the peak harvest window, this new forecasting approach will update readers daily on the interplay between countryside fires and city smog.

Also read: Exclusive: Data links Punjab's fire spikes to Delhi's pollution within 24 hours

Editor’s note: NewsDrum stands behind its farm‑fire‑based AQI forecasts because they draw on real satellite data and a clear, demonstrable correlation between crop‑residue burning and Delhi’s next‑day air quality. At the same time, we’re transparent about their limits. Even when our model has been spot‑on directionally, the actual AQI has sometimes drifted twenty‑five to thirty points either side of the predicted value as wind speed, humidity and local emissions come into play. Those factors can disperse or concentrate pollutants in ways a simple regression can’t fully capture, which is why we publish both the prediction and a note on the expected range.