Pawar play in NCP: Who checkmates whom?

New Delhi: Sharad Pawar's sudden announcement to resign as the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief seems to be a calculated one.

The veteran politician is known for throwing up political surprises and this decision could not have come in a huff.

His nephew and virtually the number two in the NCP, Ajit Pawar, has been showing visible signs of dissent in the past few weeks. He is said to be in touch with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and wants to be the chief minister in place of rebel Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde.

The BJP considers Shinde a liability, especially after its humiliating defeat in the traditional bastion Kasba Peth. The saffron party lost the seat after nearly 30 years. It is keen to dump Shinde and for that, it started wooing Ajit Pawar who had been nursing the ambition of becoming the chief minister of Maharashtra for a long time now.

The condition for Ajit Pawar was that he has to parade his supporting legislators this time to save the BJP from the 2019-type embarrassment. 

In November 2019 soon after the assembly elections, the Shiv Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray, refused to be the BJP's junior partner and wanted to lead the coalition government. 

This was unacceptable to the BJP which had emerged as the single largest party. Thackeray claimed that the top BJP leadership had given a commitment to allow the Shiv Sena to lead the coalition for the first two and a half years. The BJP dismissed it and insisted there was no such commitment.

An enraged Thackeray called off the alliance with the BJP and started negotiations with the Congress and the NCP. He was guided and aided by Sharad Pawar.

However, the events of the midnight of November 23, 2019, shook the entire Maharashtra when Ajit Pawar took oath as the deputy chief minister with BJP's Devendra Fadnavis as the chief minister. 

It first appeared that Ajit Pawar had the blessings of his uncle but as the day progressed, it became clear that he had taken the decision independent of Sharad Pawar who urged the rebels to return to the party fold and fall in line. 

Soon after, the legislators supporting Ajit Pawar returned to the party fold and pledged allegiance to Sharad Pawar. The NCP had succeeded in quelling the rebellion.

Subsequently, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government took shape with Thackeray as the chief minister. He remained on the post till June last year when Shinde revolted against Thackeray and brought down the MVA government.

A new government with Shinde as the chief minister and Fadnavis as the deputy chief minister took over. But beyond that, the BJP considered Shinde a liability and not an asset.

Thus came Ajit Pawar into play and the churning in the NCP started. Sharad Pawar dismissed reports of any revolt in the NCP but his daughter Supriya Sule some days ago claimed that political earthquakes or political blasts, both at the national level and in Maharashtra, are expected in the next 15 days. She did not elaborate.

Has Sharad Pawar's announcement something to do with his daughter's claim? Only time will tell.

But prior to her claim, a two-hour meeting between Sharaf Pawar and businessman Gautam Adani on April 20 had set the tongues wagging in the political circles of Maharashtra. 

The relations between the two are known to all but the meeting amidst the Congress-led opposition's vehement calls for a joint parliamentary committee (JPC) probe into the alleged irregularities by the Adani Group had come as a surprise to many. 

Obviously, the NCP was not in favour of that and hence did not support the demand. 

What transpired in that meeting has not been revealed by either side.

Cut to May 2, Sharad Pawar's sudden announcement shocked everyone.

It remains to be seen if the move is aimed at cutting Ajit Pawar to size and tightening his grip over the NCP or if the junior Pawar has finally managed to tame his uncle and take control of the party. 

Or is it a move to let Ajit Pawar have his way and join the NDA and conveniently distance himself from the move?

All eyes are on Sharad Pawar now.