Rajya Sabha polls: State-wise seat break-up, quota math and likely winners

New Delhi: The March 16 biennial Rajya Sabha elections for 37 seats across 10 states are shaping up as a numbers game that largely favours the BJP-led NDA, with the real contests restricted to a handful of “last-seat” fights and states where the ruling side lacks enough MLAs to sweep.

Polling will be held on March 16, with results due the same evening, and the new members will replace MPs retiring on April 2 and April 9.

Here is why the BJP is “set to gain” and where it can’t

Rajya Sabha seats are elected by MLAs through a single transferable vote system. In simple terms, a party or alliance needs a minimum vote “quota” in the Assembly to win each seat. 

When a ruling alliance is far above multiple quotas, most seats become a formality. When it is just short for the final seat, that’s where bargaining, candidate choices and cross-voting start to matter.

On present Assembly arithmetic, the NDA is strongly placed in Maharashtra, Bihar, Assam, Odisha, Haryana and Chhattisgarh, the six states where it is in power or is a partner, but it is not positioned to sweep all seats in most of them.

The state-by-state math

Maharashtra (7 seats): The ruling Mahayuti is massively ahead in the 288-member Assembly, making it the single biggest source of NDA gains in this round. PRS data on the current House shows the BJP at 132, Shiv Sena at 57 and NCP at 41, 230 in all for the ruling bloc. That is enough to lock most seats, leaving the opposition’s main opening restricted to the final slot if it stays united.

Bihar (5 seats): PRS data shows the NDA at 202 MLAs in the 243-member House. That comfortably translates into four seats on its own, while the opposition’s combined strength is just about enough for one seat if it votes together and prevents leakage.

Assam (3 seats): In the 126-member Assembly, PRS data shows the BJP at 60, with allies AGP (9) and UPPL (6), putting the ruling side at 75, enough for two seats, while the opposition has the numbers to stay in contention for one.

Odisha (4 seats): The BJP government is comfortably placed for two seats, but not for a sweep of four. With the opposition still sizeable, two seats remain realistically available to non-BJP formations depending on how candidates are fielded and votes consolidate.

Haryana (2 seats): PRS data puts the BJP at 48 in a 90-member House, with Congress at 37. That points to a 1-1 split on clean voting, with the second seat the kind that can turn into a test of discipline.

Chhattisgarh (2 seats): PRS data shows BJP 54 and Congress 35 in the 90-member Assembly. That also points to a 1-1 split on straight arithmetic.

BJP’s chances in opposition-ruled states

In the four states where the BJP is not in government, Tamil Nadu (6), Telangana (2), West Bengal (5), Himachal Pradesh (1), the party’s ability to pick seats depends on whether it has enough MLAs to hit a quota or whether the ruling side bleeds votes.

West Bengal (5 seats): PRS data from the current Assembly profile shows TMC at 213 and the BJP at 77. That typically translates into four for TMC and one for BJP on clean lines.

Telangana (2 seats): PRS data shows Congress at 64 in the 119-member Assembly, with BRS at 39, BJP at 8 and AIMIM at 7. 

Congress is positioned to take one seat; the second is where the fight sits, BRS is close enough to remain the main contender with support, while the BJP does not have the numbers to claim a seat on its own.

Tamil Nadu (6 seats): PRS data shows DMK at 133, AIADMK at 66, Congress at 18, and the BJP at 4, among others. On coalition voting patterns, this typically produces a split where the ruling side takes the bulk, and the principal opposition takes the rest, leaving the BJP dependent on ally decisions rather than its own strength.

Himachal Pradesh (1 seat): With a single seat, the contest usually comes down to simple majority control in the Assembly, unless there is cross-voting.

So what is the “real advantage”?

Overall, the numbers favour the BJP-led NDA. Maharashtra and Bihar are likely to deliver the biggest gains, while a few seats in Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Telangana and Maharashtra could still see tight contests.

The retiring list includes heavyweight names such as Sharad Pawar, Abhishek Singhvi, Saket Gokhale, Ramdas Athawale, M Thambidurai and Tiruchi Siva, making the contests politically significant even where the outcome looks numerically settled on paper.