Tarn Taran bypoll in Punjab - Why Amritpal is the X factor?

New Delhi: Khadoor Sahib Lok Sabha member Amritpal Singh Sandhu, popularly known as Amritpal, who is lodged in the Dibrugarh central jail in Assam under the National Security Act (NSA), seems to be holding the key to the November 11 by-elections in Punjab's Tarn Taran assembly constituency.

Supported by various Panthic groups, his party, Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De - Heirs of Punjab), has fielded Mandeep Singh from the constituency.

Mandeep is the elder brother of Sandeep Singh, alias Sunny, who is an accused in the murder case of Shiv Sena (Taksali) leader Sudhir Suri, a right-wing leader known for making alleged communal speeches targeting some Sikh outfits and Khalistan supporters.

Sandeep has been lodged in the Patiala Central Jail since his arrest in November 2022.

His brother's candidature was announced by Amritpal's father, Tarsem Singh. Faridkot Lok Sabha member Sarabjit Singh Khalsa, United Akali Dal (UAD) leader Mohkam Singh, Sandeep's wife and representatives of Panthic groups were present in full strength at the time of the announcement.

He is also being supported by reorganised Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) factions, Sikh Youth Federation (Bhindranwala) and Simranjit Singh Mann's Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar).

The other candidates in the fray are three-time legislator Harmeet Singh Sandhu of the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Karanbir Singh Burj (Congress), Sukhwinder Kaur Randhawa (SAD) and Harjit Singh Sandhu of the BJP. The bypolls were necessitated due to the death of AAP legislator Kashmir Singh Sohal in June. Sohal's close relative, Komalpreet Singh Chahal, has also filed his nominations as an independent candidate, a move seen as a big jolt to the AAP, given that the late leader is said to have a significant influence among the ruling party's voter base in the constituency.

Local AAP leaders are upset with the leadership for fielding an outsider for the seat. Harmeet had joined the AAP only a few months ago in July. He had first won the seat in 2002 as an independent and later joined the SAD and won twice in 2007 and 2012 as its candidate, but lost in 2017 and 2022 before resigning from the party in November last year.

SAD's Randhawa is also considered a strong candidate due to her credentials. Before joining the SAD, she headed a local civil society group, Azad. She had retired as a principal of a government school. Along with her, 43 sitting sarpanches, eight municipal councillors and dozens of former sarpanches and other leaders had also joined the Akali Dal.

While BJP's Harjit was earlier with the SAD, Congress candidate Burj is a political greenhorn.

However, the main fight, as of now, appears to be between Mandeep and the AAP, with an edge to Waris Punjab De.
The reason for that is the work done by Amritpal's organisation during the recent devastating floods in Punjab and its anti-drug campaign.

Drug addiction and abuse among the youth are a major cause of concern for parents in Punjab, and the successive governments have failed in addressing the issue.

A study by the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER) in 2022 revealed that around 15.4% of the state's population of 30 million were narcotic users.

It is said that Amritpal's outfit has played a proactive role in drug de-addiction in Punjab, opening rehabilitation centres. Its efforts have been widely appreciated in the border state, though there have been allegations of drug abuse against him also.

During the recent floods, Amritpal's team managed to organise several camps, providing relief material, food for people and fodder for cattle.

Being a Panthic-dominated constituency, Tarn Taran had once been a hotbed of militancy.

The seat is among the nine assembly segments that are part of the Khadoor Sahib Lok Sabha constituency.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Amritpal seat by 1.97 lakh votes.

Along with him, another Sikh radical, Sarabjit Singh Khalsa, won the Faridkot reserved seat by over 70,000 votes, creating ripples in Punjab's political circles. Khalsa is the son of Beant Singh, one of the two assassins of late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Beant Singh and Satwant Singh, who were the bodyguards of the then Prime Minister, had assassinated Indira Gandhi at her residence in Delhi on October 31, 1984, a few months after the 'Operation Bluestar' in June.

Desecration of the Sikh scripture Guru Granth Sahib in 2015, the release of Bandi Singhs (Sikh prisoners who completed their jail terms), the drug menace, Punjab’s right over its river water and the farmers’ demand for minimum support price on food crops formed the dominant theme of their electoral narrative during the campaigning.

The victory of Amritpal and Sarabjit triggered alarm bells in Punjab politics, with many linking it to the resurgence of radicals in the political landscape of the sensitive state bordering Pakistan.

Will the Tarn Taran bypoll cement that perception or buck the trend, only time will tell.