Trump’s tariff bully: Why India must make the US rethink its big mistake

New Delhi: The shockwaves from President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to slap a 25% tariff on Indian goods are still rippling through Delhi’s power corridors.

At this moment, India’s diplomatic spine and the very DNA of its politics have been put to the test, a challenge the Modi government must navigate.

For nearly three decades, Indian political parties, left, right, or centre, have maintained a consensus on the United States. Ever since the nuclear thaw of 1998, every government, from Vajpayee to Modi, has worked overtime to shed the Cold War-era suspicion of Washington.

Most in Lutyens’ Delhi believe that India’s rise required an open channel to America. But at the same time, they also emphasise that Trump’s knee-jerk tariff hike threatens to shred that careful consensus, reawakening old Indian memories of bullying by the West.

Trump sees India as just another transactional player, not as a nation with a long, bitter memory of colonial humiliation.

For years, anti-Americanism was the easiest currency in Indian politics, not because of Hollywood movies or McDonald’s, but because US policies so often echoed the high-handedness of the old Raj.

When American presidents threatened or hectored, Indian leaders found it easy, and popular, to rally the nation against the “foreign hand.”

Trump appears to be playing straight into that old script.

By wielding the tariff stick in the middle of trade talks, Trump is forgetting the basic lesson of India-US relations, respect matters more than pressure.

Today’s India is not looking to beg for a deal. If the US President thinks he can strong-arm New Delhi with threats, he risks reviving the very sentiments that kept India at arm’s length for decades.

According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), “While Trump's announcement of a 25 per cent tariff plus penalty on Indian goods appears harsh, a closer look shows that India is not significantly worse off than countries that did sign deals with the US.”

The UK, EU, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam now face elevated tariffs too, after giving away the store on American farm goods, oil, gas, and arms. India, as GTRI’s Ajay Srivastava notes, did not walk away from talks but refused to cross red lines, especially on agriculture, where the livelihoods of 700 million people are at stake.

That’s the point. India negotiated in good faith, didn’t buckle, and is not facing anything worse than others who signed lopsided deals with Washington.

Trump’s logic, that India is being punished for tariffs, trade barriers, and Russian oil, is a smokescreen. India's tariffs are WTO-compliant.

Non-tariff barriers? Every country uses them. As for Russian oil, it’s what kept Indian inflation in check while the West floundered.

India must make Washington, and the world, see Trump’s tariffs for what they are, a knee-jerk misstep, not a policy.

An official statement from the Modi government said India will take all necessary steps to secure the country's national interest, as has been the case with other trade agreements, including the latest with the UK.

"The Government has taken note of a statement by the US President on bilateral trade. The Government is studying its implications," the statement said.

It added that India and the US have been engaged in negotiations on concluding a fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement over the last few months.

"We remain committed to that objective," the statement said.

Government sources said that India has been working on a comprehensive plan, some referred to it as plan B.

Despite deep divisions, Indian governments and their opponents have, for almost thirty years, maintained an unusual truce, avoiding anti-American rhetoric as a tool in domestic politics.

This consensus dates back to the late nineties, when India’s nuclear tests brought global sanctions but also opened the door to a gradual, hard-earned trust with Washington. It was a strategic shift that aimed to keep India above petty provocations and focused on long-term interests.

Trump’s tariff shock now tests the durability of that unwritten agreement.

By wielding trade penalties as a weapon, the US President is challenging every Indian leader, regardless of party, to show backbone.

The old playbook of avoiding public confrontations with Washington may no longer serve India’s interests.

If ever there was a moment for politicians, whether in government or opposition, to shed hesitation and put “India First,” this is it.

The age of US exceptionalism is over. India has nothing to gain from meek acceptance and everything to lose if it signals weakness.

After all, it’s about refusing to be bullied, whether the pressure comes through trade, diplomacy, or security threats.

If Trump thought tariffs would make India come running, he badly misread Delhi’s mood. What he risks instead is a replay of the bad old days, when US-India relations lurched from suspicion to standoff, and anti-American slogans sold votes.

India has avoided the trap of a one-sided deal. Some analysts have gone so far as to say India’s firmness may make Washington seek a trade reset.

“Let Trump’s ‘America First’ face an unapologetic ‘India First.’ The world will respect that, even if the White House does not,” said an analyst who did not want to be named.