US upsurges its presence in Nepal following new government's formation

New Delhi: The US Deputy Assistant Secretary of States for South Asia, Afreen Akhter, was in Kathmandu on February 13, a day after Indian foreign secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra reached Kathmandu.

Earlier, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) administrator Samantha Power was in Kathmandu. She is a member of the National Security Council.

Immediately after the formation of the Nepal government, Victoria Nuland, US deputy secretary of state for political affairs, was in Kathmandu.

The three back-to-back US official meetings in Nepal since Prime Minister Prachanda took charge just two months ago speak volumes about the US brand-new interest in Nepal.

The visits of US officials are being closely watched, both by India and China, where Nepal elected Prime Minister is yet to visit any neighbouring country. Visit to New Delhi has always been the first duty of call of any Nepal Prime Minister after taking power in Kathmandu.

US concentration in Nepal became clear last October when they appointed Ambassador Dean Thompson, deputy assistant secretary, South Asia, a high profile senior officer, as the US ambassador to Nepal.

The US is in the process of implementing the $500-million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact, signed with the Nepal government last year. The goal of the MCC is to promote economic growth and the elimination of poverty in Nepal. The MCC assistance under this Compact supports Nepal in strengthening good governance, financial freedom and investments in people.

The US and Nepal have also discussed a proposal to engage in a State Partnership Programme (SPP) between the Nepal Army and the United States National Guard.

The USAID, the official humanitarian organisation of the US, is playing a significant role in strategic humanitarian partnerships in the shape/projects for the welfare of the people of Nepal, more so in the post-Covid-19 era.

US Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland's recent visit to Nepal was highly covered by the media

In less than two months after forming a government in Kathmandu, political observers see Victoria Nuland's visit to Nepal as a geopolitically strategic move. It is the first and highest-level official visit from the current US administration.

It is partly seen as the US government's decision to have a foothold in Nepal and grow a better relationship with the current government and the opposition in Nepal for implementing new projects to boost Nepal's involvement in the Indo-Pacific.

Between the wrinkles of the objective, political observers see it as the US attempting to increase its foothold in Nepal and also to halt the increasing growth of China in Nepal.

New Delhi needs to take these visits and follow up seriously

Early this week's visit of the Indian foreign secretary to Nepal, where he met the Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister and the President of Nepal, is the right step taken by the Indian government with the newly elected government.

The Indian foreign secretary

Vinay Mohan Kwatra had served as the Indian ambassador to Nepal before assuming the charge of foreign secretary in May 2022 and is well versed in the political situation of Nepal.

Perhaps the foreign secretary must have taken the Indian Prime Minister's message to the Nepal Prime Minister and sent an invitation to visit India before visiting any other country.

It is believed that after the President's elections in Nepal that are conducted in early March 2023, Prime Minister Prachanda may visit the United States at the invitation of the US government.

India needs to look for a strategy to deal with Nepal, where now two giant superpowers, the United States and China, are going to fight for their process of implementing MCC and the SSP, on the one hand, versus China's One Belt and Road strategy for developmental projects in Nepal.

Indian officials and ministers need more visits to Nepal and meet their counterparts to speed up all the ongoing Indian projects in Nepal.

On his two-day visit, Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra, in Kathmandu, called on Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and President Bidhya Devi Bhandari.

The Foreign Secretary also met Nepal's Foreign Minister, Bharat Raj Paudyal. Kwatra discussed bilateral issues during the high-profile meetings and reviewed various aspects of Nepal-India relations.

He expressed commitment to allowing electricity power export from Nepal for the long term. "The two sides reviewed the projects in progress like railways, transmissions lines, bridges, and the ICPs," the Nepalese Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

They also discussed the technical upgrading of cross-border transmission lines and early approval of the four proposed transmission line projects," the statement added.

China-Nepal Relations

China is trying to play a big role in the Himalayan country because the elected government, and the two top ruling leaders, Prachanda and Oli, are seen as pro-China.

With its presence in Nepal through various developmental projects and the newly appointed Chinese Ambassador in Nepal, China may twist the Nepal government to limit its relations with the United States and increase its Chinese presence in Nepal.

The Chinese government has always opposed the MCC project of the United States and wants their One Belt and Road project to expand in Nepal. Nepal was equally interested in bringing in China's One belt and Road programmes to boost economic growth and development and their strong foothold in the Himalayan country neighbouring India.

Only time and future stability of the government will tell how the new Nepal ruling alliance will balance their relations with the US and China.

China's influence in Nepal

It has grown alongside the economic and political relationship in recent years. China has already constructed large-scale infrastructure projects, like highways, airports, and hydropower plants.

China has also increased its people-to-people connections, and cultural, business and educational exchanges keep taking place. China, of late, through railways, is connecting Nepal with Tibet.

Conclusions

We may see more influence from the US and China through different projects in Nepal. India will have to maintain a balance and keep working on their direct access and friendship with Nepal.

Meanwhile, the political situation will likely remain unstable as Prime Minister Prachanda, who fought elections in partnership with former Prime Minister Deoba of Nepali Congress broke his alliance post-elections and joined the opposition party of K.P. Sharma Oli-led Opposition party.

Also, the younger educated generation of political leaders are making inroads in the politics of Nepal and are much accepted by the younger voters who are already a threat to the ageing old leadership of Nepal.

Prime Minister Prachanda is the head of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), to lead the government for the first half of the five-year term.

The opposition continues to remain strong. How the political landscape will shape up in the future remains uncertain; hence, more international third-party interventions will continue.