Why a one-way Bihar verdict is more likely than the exit polls suggest

New Delhi: Exit polls are again selling a neck-and-neck finish. The electoral pattern of the last two years points the other way. Voters have been decisive.

When a government front-loads direct cash to women in the run-up to voting, the result often tilts clearly to one side.

When the public turns against an incumbent, even big schemes cannot save it. On either reading, a split mandate is the least likely outcome in Bihar.

The record from recent state elections shows clear, lopsided verdicts rather than knife-edge finishes. Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram in 2023 produced unambiguous winners. Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh in 2024 reinforced the same pattern. These were not elections decided by a handful of seats; they were mandates.

Exit polls have also struggled with margin. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, most polls forecast a sweep well beyond the mid-300s for the ruling alliance. The final result was well short of that mark, with the BJP stopping at around 240 seats.

The gap was big enough to flip narrative and expectations. That miss should temper any confidence in Bihar “too close to call” projections.

In this cycle, targeted cash support to women has been the most visible pre-poll lever. Governments that executed simple, time-bound, direct transfers and kept the messaging focused often saw strong consolidation among women and first-time voters.

Bihar has seen a similar design with the Rs 10,000 transfer to women ahead of polling. The size, timing and clarity of this payout matter. It is easy to understand, quick to feel, and repeatedly communicated. Such schemes tend to move late deciders and lift turnout among recipients.

Security events can harden voter choice late in the campaign. The Red Fort blast on November 10, between Bihar’s two phases, was officially treated as a terror incident. Episodes like this compress the pool of undecided voters and reduce mid-week drift. That again favours clearer outcomes over split mandates.

Vote share arithmetic is a poor guide to seat conversion in first-past-the-post. Rajasthan 2023 is a simple example. The BJP’s lead over the Congress on vote share was small, yet the seat gap was large. A late swing of even two percentage points can create a wave in seats. Exit polls that average out vote shares and then map them to seats on old elasticities underestimate this surge effect.

At the same time, schemes are not a shield when the public wants change. Karnataka 2023 is the clearest case. Despite welfare top-ups and price relief announcements, the BJP lost office and the Congress won 135 of 224 seats.

Himachal Pradesh 2022 followed the same script. The BJP promised benefits for employees and households through the campaign, but the Congress still won 40 of 68 seats and formed the government.

Telangana 2023 showed that even one of the most expansive welfare models could not stop a change verdict; the Congress won 64 of 119 seats and the BRS lost power. When the mood turns, pre-poll schemes become hygiene, not a differentiator.

Put together, four signals point to a one-way finish in Bihar. Voters across states have been decisive. Exit polls have misread margins.

Bihar’s election-eve transfer to women is large, simple and well-timed. A high-salience security shock between phases likely reduced late volatility.

On this logic, the result is more likely to cross 180 seats for either the NDA or the Mahagathbandhan than to produce a hung House.

The number on Friday's counting will test that call. But if recent elections are a guide, the side that wins Bihar will not edge past the line; it will clear it by distance.