Will dumping Eknath Shinde be bad optics for BJP?

New Delhi: Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde is said to have taken a three day's leave from work to spend some time in his village Dare in Satara district.

There are multiple stories regarding this sudden move by Shinde.

While some reports claimed that he is upset with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for its attempts to win over Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Ajit Pawar, others suggested that he left for Satara as a mark of protest against the demands from certain powerful quarters to switch role with his deputy Devendra Fadnavis.

Whatever the reason, Shinde's sudden vanishing act has set off tongues wagging in Maharashtra's political circles.

The Uddhav Thackeray-led faction of the Shiv Sena has claimed that the Shinde government will collapse within the next 15-20 days. Its leader Sanjay Raut insisted that the death warrant of the Shinde government has been issued.

Well, he might be referring to the Supreme Court verdict pending on a plea seeking disqualification of 16 Shiv Sena legislators (of the Shinde faction) who revolted against Thackeray's leadership. Raut could also be alluding to reports suggesting that the BJP was in the final stages of talks with Ajit Pawar regarding government formation. The general perception is that if Ajit Pawar comes in, Shinde will be shown the door.

Perhaps, the BJP has realised that Shinde is a liability for it, especially after the party's humiliating defeat from its traditional bastion Kasba Peth in the recent by-elections.

Shinde doesn't bring any value addition to the BJP. At best, he might divide the Shiv Sena vote but that won't help the BJP to come to power on its own in the next assembly elections. It needs an extra push by someone like Ajit Pawar to reach the magic figure.

Will Ajit Pawar succeed in breaking the NCP this time?

After veteran leader Sharad Pawar, his nephew Ajit Pawar is said to be the strategist and the organisational backbone. However, Sharad Pawar is keen to install his daughter Supriya Sule as his successor. This has riled Ajit Pawar and that is why he is in a rebellious mode. 

If Ajit Pawar goes with the BJP, the move will make it easy for Sharad Pawar to hand over the reins of the NCP to Sule.  

That said, the BJP too will have to tread cautiously while dealing with Ajit Pawar. Their last relationship ended in a disaster within hours, much to the embarrassment of Fadnavis, the BJP and its central leadership.  

And by dumping Eknath Shinde, the BJP will also score a self-goal as it might lose the trust and goodwill of other leaders who might be thinking of switching sides in future. Shinde had taken a huge political risk by breaking away from Uddhav Thackeray. While Shinde went on to become the chief minister, his detractors claim he is a mere rubber stamp and the real power vests in Fadnavis.

The move will also strengthen the perception that the BJP believes in the “use and throw” policy when it comes to its alliance partners. 

It is alleged that the BJP expands its base in states at the expense of its alliance partners and then ditches them at its convenience. 

Some of the examples given by the BJP’s detractors are the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Goa Forward Party (GFP), Janata Dal (United) and Chirag Paswan’s faction of the Lok Janshakti Party.