Amid ageing society and falling fertility rate, Maharashtra population seen at 12.93 cr: Survey

Mumbai, Mar 5 (PTI) Maharashtra's population is projected to have reached 12.93 crore as on March 1, 2026, up from 11.24 crore recorded in the 2011 Census, with the state witnessing a new demographic phase of falling fertility rate and aging populace, according to the Economic Survey 2025-26.

Maharashtra accounted for 9.3 per cent of India's population of 121.09 crore as per the 2011 Census. Population density in the state has risen from 365 persons per square km in 2011 to a projected 420 per square km by March 2026, said the Economic Survey of Maharashtra 2025-26 tabled in the state legislature on Thursday.

The projected 12.93 crore population in 2026 includes 6.73 crore males and 6.20 crore females. Rural population is estimated at 6.55 crore and urban at 6.38 crore, noted the report.

The state's urbanisation rate of 45.2 per cent (2011 Census) was significantly higher than India's 31.1 per cent. Urban population in Maharashtra, which came into existence in 1960, has risen every decade -- from 28.2 per cent in 1961 to 45.2 per cent in 2011.

Among Maharashtra's six revenue divisions, Konkan, which includes Mumbai, has the largest share at 25.2 per cent of the projected 2026 population, with 3.26 crore people. The Pune division follows at 21.1 per cent (2.73 crore), while Nashik accounts for 16.9 per cent (2.18 crore), highlighted the survey.

The Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar division in central Maharashtra is projected at 2.22 crore (17.2 per cent), while Amravati and Nagpur divisions in the eastern part of the state account for 1.26 crore (9.7 per cent) and 1.28 crore (9.9 per cent), respectively.

The proportion of children aged 0-14 years is set to decline from 26.7 per cent of the population in 2011 to 19.6 per cent by 2026 . At the same time, the working-age population (15-59 years) is rising, from 63.3 per cent in 2011 to 67.3 per cent by 2026, according to the report.

The survey projected that the population aged 60 years and above will rise from 10 per cent in 2011 to 13.1 per cent in 2026, and further to 17.1 per cent by 2036.

The total dependency ratio - the burden of dependents (young and elderly) on the working-age population - is expected to decline from 57.9 per cent in 2011 to 48.6 per cent in 2026 before rising to 51 per cent by 2036, as the weight of an ageing populace offsets the gains from a smaller child demography, it explained.

Maharashtra's Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is projected to decline from 15.2 per thousand population during 2011-15 to 12.4 during 2021-25 and further to 10.4 per thousand by 2031-35. This is consistently below the national average - India's CBR for 2021-25 is projected at 16.0 per thousand, noted the report.

The CBR is defined as the number of live births per thousand population.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) - the average number of children born per woman - has fallen from 1.77 during 2011-15 to a projected 1.56 for 2021-25 and is expected to stabilise at around 1.51 by 2031-35, well below the replacement level of 2.1. India's TFR for the corresponding period is projected at 1.9, also below replacement, but higher than Maharashtra.

The Crude Death Rate (CDR) in the state is projected at 7.2 per thousand for 2021-25, broadly in line with the national projection of 7.0 per thousand.

The CDR is defined as number of deaths per thousand population.

Maharashtra's Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) - deaths per thousand live births in the first year of life - stood at 25 per thousand during 2011-15 and is projected to fall to 21 per thousand during 2021-25, and further to 19 per thousand by 2026-30, stated the report.

The corresponding national figures for 2021-25 are significantly higher at 35.3 per thousand, underscoring Maharashtra's relatively stronger public health infrastructure, it added.

Life expectancy at birth in the state is projected at 71.9 years for males and 75.9 years for females during 2021-25, higher than the national averages of 69.4 years for males and 72.7 years for females for the same period.

By 2031-35, male life expectancy in Maharashtra is projected to reach 73.2 years and for females at 77.5 years, according to the survey.

The state's sex ratio of 929 females per thousand males as per the 2011 Census is below the national average of 943, a gap that has persisted across decades. The child sex ratio (age 0-6 years) was 894 in Maharashtra against 918 nationally.

Projections indicate this gap will remain, with the state sex ratio expected at 922 in 2026 and 921 in 2031, against the national projected ratio of 948 in 2026, said the report.

Maharashtra's literacy rate of 82.3 per cent (2011 Census) exceeds the national rate of 73 per cent. Male literacy in the state stands at 88.4 per cent against India's 80.9 per cent, while female literacy at 75.9 per cent compares favourably with India's 64.6 per cent.

As per the 2011 Census, Maharashtra had 2.44 crore households - 1.32 crore rural and 1.12 crore urban - with an average household size of 4.6 persons, slightly below India's average of 4.9.

Scheduled Caste population in the state was 1.33 crore, while the number of Scheduled Tribes stood at 1.05 crore. The population of persons with disabilities stood at 30 lakh, according to the survey.

Work Participation Rate - the proportion of workers in the total population - was 44 per cent in the state against 39.8 per cent nationally, it added. PTI MR RSY