Economic Survey delivers powerful message of India's growth, say experts

New Delhi, Jan 29 (PTI) The Economic Survey 2025-26 delivers a powerful message that India is accelerating as it outlined medium-term priorities for growth amid fragmenting global economic structure and supply-chain realignments, according to exporters.

The Survey projects India's economic growth at 6.8-7.2 per cent in the fiscal year starting April. The forecast for 2026-27 is slower than the 7.4 per cent projection for the current financial year, driven by consumption and investment.

The government's pre-Budget Economic Survey reaffirms the country's status as the world's fastest-growing major economy despite trade risks and global volatility clouding the outlook.

"The Economic Survey 2025-2026 delivers a powerful message: while the global economy is fragmenting under geopolitical stress and supply-chain realignments, India is accelerating -- and that divergence is our strategic advantage," said Naveen Aggarwal, Office Managing Partner, Delhi-NCR, KPMG, in India.

Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist, Crisil, said the 2025-26 Survey sees improved growth prospects despite heightened global uncertainty.

"Growth-oriented government capital expenditure, and reforms can play a key role in lifting real GDP growth above its decadal trend.

"In the context, the Economic Survey notes some key priorities to lift medium-term growth: building manufacturing capacity, building skillsets for workforce to contribute more to growth, and reforms to raise productivity gains in the economy," Deshpande said.

Rupin Banker, International Financier & Co-founder, Strategic Global Alliance, said sustaining 7 per cent-plus growth will increasingly depend on India's ability to attract global capital through faster execution, regulatory certainty and consistently strong returns.

"Access to abundant and affordable global capital can transform industry and infrastructure, create millions of jobs and support sustainable growth. However, foreign investors continue to price in execution risk," Banker said.

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said it believes the Survey not only fairly assessed the strengths and weaknesses of the Indian economy but also suggested steps for sustaining high growth.

The Survey has estimated calibrated improvements in capital accumulation, labour inputs, and trends in total factor productivity growth have pushed the potential real GDP growth to about 7 per cent for the medium term (FY26-FY30) from 6.5 per cent earlier.

"Aligning with the Survey's assessment, Ind-Ra has recently released its growth projections for Indian states, with 10 states expected to witness above 7 per cent growth in FY27," said Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Head Public Finance, India Ratings & Research.

Dipesh Jain, Partner, Economic Laws Practice, said the Survey indicated that while the nominal GDP, as per Budget Estimates for FY26, is likely to be higher by about 51 per cent from FY22, the corresponding gross direct tax revenue is likely to be higher by about 58 per cent.

"The increased tax collection is attributed to, amongst others, NUDGE (Non-intrusive Usage of Data to Guide and Enable) approach of the Income-tax Department," Jain said.

Rajni Thakur, Chief Economist, L&T Finance the pre-Budget document has done a fine job of balancing the perspectives around strong domestic growth story, intensifying financial vulnerabilities and fragile global conditions while also providing directions to navigate global resurgence of economic statecraft.

"Key policy priorities outlined to 'run a marathon and sprint at the same time', including urbanisation, employment, AI ecosystem, education and scaling up MSMEs are noteworthy," Thakur added.

D K Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY India, said on the whole, the Economic Survey paints a picture of robust economic health for the Indian economy amidst continuing global uncertainties.

"The only uncertainty relates to global economic headwinds that may continue for some time. However, India has strategised to mitigate the effect of this uncertainty by progressively enlarging its bilateral agreements with other large economies and country groups," Srivastava said.

Bhavesh Shah, Managing Director, Head, Investment Banking, Equirus Capital, said the Survey reinforces that India is set for a steady growth trajectory, backed by projected about 7 per cent medium-term potential, disciplined fiscal metrics, and ongoing reforms that aim to enhance productivity and investment appeal.

Execution will determine how effectively these projections translate into tangible outcomes, but the data-driven narrative offers a clear, credible compass for policymakers, investors, and industry alike, Shah added. PTI NKD TRB