Gold, silver may take breather next week on US data, low volumes: Analysts

New Delhi, Dec 21 (PTI) Gold and silver prices may take a breather next week as investors turn cautious ahead of key U.S. macroeconomic data including GDP numbers while thin year-end trading volumes are expected to limit price movements, analysts said.

Investors will also closely track of the US housing data numbers, core durable goods, and consumer confidence figures which will steer the global bullion prices, they added.

"Moving into the Christmas week, traders expect some consolidation/correction in the markets as volumes are expected to remain low with major trader's staying away due to long-weekend starting late on Wednesday. However, volatility/price swing may be higher due to low participation," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said.

Several global markets are likely to witness subdued activity in the coming days as investors stay on the sidelines ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays, an expert said.

Over the past week, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), rose Rs 574, or 0.43 per cent. It had touched an all-time high of Rs 1,35,590 per 10 grams on Thursday.

"Gold futures advanced modestly across domestic and international exchanges this week, extending an unusually persistent rally," Pankaj Singh, smallcase manager, Founder and Principal Researcher, SmartWealth.AI, said.

He added that this marks the fourth consecutive weekly increase in MCX gold futures and keeps prices firmly on track for a twelfth successive month of gains, a degree of persistence rarely observed in modern bullion markets.

Echoing similar views, Prathamesh Mallya, DVP - Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One, said, "Indian markets saw gold prices higher as rupee continues to depreciate and hit record lows against the US dollar in the recent week." In the international markets, Comex gold futures gained USD 59, or 1.36 per cent, over the week.

"The weak dollar, dovish federal reserve, lower inflation data in the US triggered the momentum in gold prices in the recent week. The US Fed made a 25 basis point rate cut and indication of further easing in 2026 has brightened the outlook for the yellow metal," Mallya said.

According to Pankaj Singh of SmartWealth.AI, the current trajectory in gold is not a routine cyclical upswing. Comparable price behaviour has occurred only twice in the past five decades, each during periods of deep monetary and geopolitical stress.

As 2025 draws to a close, analysts expect bullion's bullish tone to persist amid global monetary easing expectations and currency weakness, though near-term corrections are likely.

Silver futures, which have outperformed gold this year, may also pause after a blistering fourth straight week of gains, analysts said.

On the MCX, the white metal zoomed Rs 15,588, or 8.08 per cent, during the past week, climbing to touch a lifetime high of Rs 2,08,603 per kilogram on Friday before retreating slightly on profit booking.

"The bullion continued their staggering rally moving into the year-end with silver leading the gains with a rally of another 8 per cent during the week. Persistent flows into the exchange traded funds (ETFs) globally, and concerns about the unwinding of yen carry trades after Bank of Japan's expected rate hike," Pranav Mer of JM Financial Services, said.

He added that silver continues to outperform every other asset class and is up over 130 per cent so far this year, rallying the market fundamentals or the supply-demand dynamics. We remain caution in the coming trading sessions as a price correction may be seen any time soon.

While the medium-term outlook for both metals remains constructive, Pranav Mer said the risk reward remains unfavourable for silver as it appears stretched after its strong rally.

"Silver remains positive, but risk reward remains unfavourable. In the near-term prices may test Rs 2,25,000-2,45,000 per kilogram. On the technical front... we continue to maintain positive view in gold and expect prices to rise further to Rs 1,40,000-1,45,000 by early next year, with support for reversal placed at Rs 1,29,000 per 10 grams," he said. PTI HG TRB