How Trump's 25% tariff plus penalty on India adds fresh uncertainty to exports

New Delhi: US President Donald Trump's announcement to impose a sweeping 25 per cent tariff plus penalty on India from August 1 will be a big blow to the country's exports and adds a fresh layer of uncertainty, exporters said on Wednesday.

They said that in the absence of clarity on the penalty's scope, Indian exporters and US importers are unable to accurately calculate landed costs or plan how to absorb the elevated tariff burden.

"The announcement by Trump...comes as a big blow for India. With US being one of the key export destinations, this will severely impact the sectors like gems and jewellery that are heavily dependent on exports and is one of the biggest contributors to the economy of the country," Kama Jewelry MD Colin Shah said.

The domestic gems and jewellery industry of India has already been bearing the brunt of the prolonged geopolitical tensions between Russia-Ukraine and Middle East for almost over two years.

"Going ahead, we expect trade activities to remain muted with the US," he said.

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced the imposition of a 25 per cent tariff on all goods coming from India starting August 1, plus an unspecified penalty for buying military equipment and crude oil from Russia.

Sharing similar views, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) Director General Ajay Sahai said the US decision has added a fresh layer of uncertainty for businesses on both sides.

"Exporters largely view this disruption as a temporary setback, anticipating that a comprehensive trade agreement will bring stability, correct asymmetries, and ultimately create new avenues for trade and recovery," Sahai said.

He added that this lack of predictability is disrupting supply chain planning and pricing decisions.

Mumbai-based exporter and founder chairman of Technocraft Industries India Sharad Kumar Saraf said that this announcement will create further uncertainty. "We need stability in these tariffs." India's goods exports to the US rose by 23.53 per cent to USD 8.3 billion in June while imports dipped by 10.61 per cent to about USD 4 billion during the month, according to the commerce ministry data.

During April-June, the country's exports to the US increased by 22.18 per cent to USD 25.51 billion, while imports rose 11.68 per cent to USD 12.86 billion, the data showed.

The US was the largest trading partner of India in the April-June quarter of 2025-26.

India and the US are negotiating a bilateral trade agreement. The US team is visiting India in August for the sixth round of talks for the pact.

In 2024, India's main exports to the US included drug formulations and biologicals (USD 8.1 billion), telecom instruments (USD 6.5 billion), precious and semi-precious stones (USD 5.3 billion), petroleum products (USD 4.1 billion), vehicle and auto components (USD 2.8 billion), gold and other precious metal jewellery (USD 3.2 billion), ready-made garments of cotton, including accessories (USD 2.8 billion), and products of iron and steel (USD 2.7 billion).

Imports included crude oil (USD 4.5 billion), petroleum products (USD 3.6 billion), coal, coke (USD 3.4 billion), cut and polished diamonds (USD 2.6 billion), electric machinery (USD 1.4 billion), aircraft, spacecraft and parts (USD 1.3 billion), and gold (USD 1.3 billion).