Did PM Modi and Amit Shah know Nitish's plan in advance? Yet, they let him go?

New Delhi: Nothing has cheered the anti-BJP camp across the spectrum more than Nitish Kumar's decision to break his party's tie-up with the National Democratic Alliance in Bihar. A slap in the face of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a big setback for his 2024 dream run, as his hardened critics say.

Nitish's decision to become Chief Minister again with the help of the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) did take many by surprise.

But we are told that neither Modi or Home Minister Amit Shah were taken by surprise and, hence, expected it to happen. Those who have known and followed Nitish Kumar closely say so too, pointing to the propensity of those who claim a "socialist" legacy and owe their rise to the Mandal politics of the 1990s.

These leaders, who cut their teeth in the JP Movement of the mid-1970s, have shown they are capable of uniting and separating from each other's or anyone's company in a short span--without ever feeling obliged to explain their actions as long as their voters keep backing them.

That is why if a lot can happen in politics within a week, it has certainly happened in Bihar. It was only on August 1, Shah had declared that the BJP and the Janata Dal (United) would stay together till the next assembly polls due in 2025 and till then Nitish Kumar would remain its chief minister.

That statement was supposed to quell voices within the BJP in Bihar who were pressing for an alternative to the Nitish Kumar-led dispensation. Shah's observation was made to appear like pouring cold water on proposals mooted by those who were fed up with the diminishing returns of the coalition.

It was seen as a tactical retreat by the top leadership of the BJP even as they were well aware of the brewing discontent within the JD(U) too against the BJP.

In that context, the cold war between Nitish Kumar and his one-time close aide, Ram Chandra Prasad Singh, was only supposed to be a tip of the troubles between the two parties.

His eventual exit from the Modi government -- because of Nitish Kumar's refusal to renew his Rajya Sabha membership and the subsequent "unearthing" of a plot led by him to split the JD(U) to benefit the BJP -- seemed to be a logical explanation to what the one-time "Sushan Babu" had already thought of.

Therefore, if one were to accept BJP insiders' account that Modi and Shah were aware about Nitish Kumar's dalliances with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav and yet did not want to prevent the exit of the JD(U), it means the unfolding of a major political development, which many desired but did not want to own up as the "agent provocateur."

By all accounts, as the media headlines in the last 48 hours have captured, Nitish Kumar's departure does appear like a blow to the BJP's grand plan for 2024.

Did the BJP allow itself to be surprised and rebuffed by Nitish Kumar so that it can work for a long-term advantage?

Also, can crying hoarse over political betrayal -- because the BJP and Nitish Kumar sought a mandate together in 2020 to rule the state -- actually work in Bihar where caste equations override considerations of political correctness and priorities?

The BJP may think it worked in Maharashtra and so it should work in Bihar? In fact, the BJP chose to observe "maha dharna" over "vishwasghat" (betrayal of trust) on the day Nitish Kumar took oath as CM for the eighth time.

The BJP hopes that it can turn the tide against it this time by flagging Nitish Kumar's act of "re-embracing" the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led RJD (whom he had dubbed as the most corrupted lot to justify his decision to "re-join hands" with the BJP in 2017) as an example of an untrustworthy man who aspires to be prime minister one day.

Those, who are in the know of the Modi-Amit Shah plan for times ahead, claim that Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav broke bread not on Eid-ul-Fitr (so as to conclude their pact by Muharrum) but even earlier.

With Nitish Kumar's frustrations knowing no bounds ever since his party cut a sorry figure with its tally of seats in the 2020 polls and he appeared "unashamedly" accepting the BJP's offer to make him CM again, he had apparently got feelers from the RJD.

Over the next 12 months through the pandemic, Tejashwi Yadav convinced Nitish Kumar that the RJD could guarantee a smoother term as CM till 2025 than the BJP. It could even help him realise his old ambition to be projected as the Opposition's prime minister candidate in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Thereby, he could end the "nuisance" created by the growing assertiveness of the Bihar BJP, which was, in any case, out to oust him either by splitting the JD(U) or isolating him in his own party as it had done to Uddhav Thackeray in Maharashtra.

In return, Tejashwi wanted the RJD to get a lion's share of the "creamy" ministries so that it could muster sufficient financial resources by being in the government to fight the Lok Sabha polls in 2024 and the Bihar assembly election in 2025. After raids by law enforcement agencies in numerous cases, the Lalu Prasad Yadav family had felt monetarily challenged as their assets were either frozen or under lock and key.

Nitish Kumar, like all other "socialists" of his time, has believed that when governance models fail, better stick to the caste equations or simply return to the Mandal model. That is why he resorted to a high decibel campaign for a caste-based census in the name of better targeting of subsidies. Then, he decided to swallow his pride and seek out the RJD's standing offer.

"Nitish had to decide between his discomfort level with the RJD and the BJP and the former seemed tolerable even if it meant his image as anti-corruption crusader goes for a toss," conceded an aide.

Adding to the grapevine, was the BJP's purported survey of the mood of the people in Bihar.

It apparently indicated that Nitish Kumar was no longer as popular as he was in 2017 or earlier. His image as "Sushan Babu" had long taken a severe beating on major fronts and the BJP must assume greater control of the coalition and re-work its social base for eventually replacing Nitish Kumar at the helm. As this project would need time, the BJP must stick with Nitish Kumar for some more time. That is why the BJP did not cast the first stone and let Nitish Kumar go, insiders claim.

Of course, the Bihar of 2022 is not the state that it was during the pre-Mandal or the post-Mandal era. The BJP is a major fighting force today and its brand of Hindutva to unite all castes, especially the most backward ones (though flawed in parts) cannot be lightly dismissed by its rivals as of having no consequence. Nitish Kumar may win the first round but the BJP is confident of the future and will bide its time.