Modi's bid to maximise votes for Droupadi Murmu spells trouble for Opposition

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's push to get the maximum number of votes for the ruling alliance's Presidential candidate Droupadi Murmu is spelling big trouble for the opposition parties.

Wherever these parties are not in a cohesive shape, the BJP is working to encourage a split or get as many of their MPs and MLAs to vote for Murmu.

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So that her victory margin over Opposition candidate Yashwant Sinha surpasses that Ram Nath Kovind had over Meira Kumar in 2017 when he was elected President. Kovind had won with more than 65% of the votes.

Modi wants Murmu, who is set to become India's first tribal President, to win with a record margin by drawing votes from across the political spectrum. 

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Though there is no open mention of the target, several BJP interlocutors are working toward Murmu getting more than 75% of the votes of the electoral college that elects the President. 

This comprises 776 Members of Parliament and 4,033 MLAs who are to vote in the Presidential elections this year. The total value of votes is 10,86,431. The value of votes of MLAs is 5,43,231 and MPs are 5,43,200. The BJP, along with its allies and backers, commands over seven lakh votes.

The system envisages proportional representation, utilising a single transferable vote system and secret ballot. The value of each vote based on the population is also predetermined for an MLA vote.

Why advantage for BJP?

What gives an advantage to the BJP is that it won the 2019 Lok Sabha elections with an impressive number of MPs. 

The BJP on its own has 392 MPs, excluding four nominated Rajya Sabha members who cannot vote, out of the current strength of 772 members from both Houses. In 2022, the BJP  also won the assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa. It is in power in Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Bihar and Assam.  

This time, The BJP has won the support of non-NDA parties like the Biju Janata Dal, Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSRCP and the AIADMK whose leaders even filed nomination papers endorsing Murmu.

Now, the search is for ways to maximise votes. Accordingly, BJP managers are working behind the scenes to tap fault lines in the opposition parties – to get as many Opposition MPs and MLAs to "exercise their conscience" to back Murmu.

Consequently, there is a sort of meltdown in the opposition camp ahead of the July 18 vote for the 15th President of India. The collapse of Uddhav Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition in Maharashtra – consisting of the Shiv Sena, Sharad Pawar's NCP and the Congress – and its replacement by Eknath Shinde-Devendra Fadnavis government appears to be timed ahead of the Presidential elections. The change of government has ensured that the NDA nominee garners more votes from this state.

Split in Sena timed with Presidential polls? Next is Goa?

The split in the Shiv Sena that reduced the size of the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction has given a big boost to garnering votes for Murmu from Maharashtra. 

In fact, the election to fill vacancies in the state legislative council triggered cross-voting and eventually to a big revolt by Eknath Shinde who finally became CM.

Similarly, the Congress is on the verge of a split in neighbouring Goa. The ruling BJP is attempting to woo as many as eight of the 11 Congress MLAs into the party fold. That includes Michael Lobo, the Leader of Opposition in the Goa Assembly, and Digambar Kamat, ex-chief minister who had switched from the BJP to the Congress way back in 2005.

On a firefighting mode, the Congress sacked Lobo and rushed its observer Dinesh Gundu Rao to stop a switchover of legislators. The BJP is trying for a two/third split so that a minimum of eight of the Congress MLAs leave the party. In the Goa Assembly elections held earlier this year, the BJP emerged as the single largest party, winning 20 seats in the 40-member state Assembly and crossed the half-way mark to form the government again with the support of some independent MLAs.

The BJP is said to be in touch with the Congress MLAs in BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh and Haryana, some of whom are willing to defy their leadership and back Murmu.

Rajasthan's Congress MLAs too are under the BJP's scanner. Many of them are said to be unhappy with Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot who passed a very difficult test recently. He ensured the victory for all three key Congress nominees in the Rajya Sabha polls from the state. 

But dissension and mood against Gehlot are at an all-time high following the killing of a Hindu tailor by Islamic jihadists in Udaipur. The supporters of dissident leader Sachin Pilot could see a "now or never" moment to strike at Gehlot's "stranglehold" of the party.

In Uttar Pradesh, SBSP president Om Prakash Rajbhar, an ally of the Samajwadi Party that is backing Yashwant Sinha, may support Murmu as he has sent mixed signals on continuing with the Akhilesh Yadav-led opposition alliance.  Rajbhar and Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia) chief Shivpal Singh Yadav attended a dinner hosted by Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in Murmu's honour on July 8. Similarly, Jansatta Dal Loktantrik founder Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias ‘Raja Bhaiya’ extended his support to Murmu, saying his two MLAs will vote for her.

Sinha feeling let down by Mamata?

Already, Yashwant Sinha feels severely let down by Trinamool chairperson Mamata Banerjee though he does not openly say so. She is no more interested in his election campaign ever since the NDA announced Murmu as its candidate. 

Mamata has told Sinha that he doesn't need to come to Bengal to campaign. She would “take care of things in Bengal”, and so he would be better off canvassing for votes in other states. 

Sinha was Trinamool’s national vice president till he resigned from the post and party two weeks ago after being named the ‘joint’ Opposition candidate for the President’s post. That was because the Left insisted Sinha quit the Trinamool Congress if he wanted its support. Earlier, Pawar, Farooq Abdullah and Gopal Krishna Gandhi had refused to enter the fray.

Mamata’s eagerness to keep Sinha away from Bengal arises out of her fear of losing the support of the state’s estimated 52.9 lakh tribals, mostly Santhals, who form about six per cent of Bengal’s population. Murmu is a Santhal from Odisha.

The BJP has been working on expanding its base among these tribals. So Mamata may plan to let her MLAs support Murmu if they want. 

Opposition leaders Sitaram Yechury, Sharad Pawar and Kharge do not want Sinha to skip Bengal in his campaign as it will send a wrong message. Yechury told him that the Left will host him in Bengal. Meanwhile, Murmu, who is reaching Kolkata on July 12 for meeting 69 BJP MLAs,  has sought a separate meeting with Mamata.

Sinha may skip Jharkhand (his home state) too because Jharkhand CM and JMM chief Hemant Soren is understood to have backed Murmu. Murmu’s visit to Ranchi recently to seek support from MPs and MLAs of Jharkhand was a resounding success. She has not only managed to strike an emotional chord with her electors, many of whom are fellow Santhals.

Close to 1969 polls?

At this rate, the Presidential elections of 2022 may soon appear to be closer to the one held in 1969, which altered national politics. 

In this election, the Congress party had made Neelam Sanjiva Reddy its official candidate. However, Indira Gandhi who was then PM went against her party and backed labour union leader VV Giri who decided to contest as an independent. 

The Swatantra Party, Jana Sangh and other opposition parties put up  C D Deshmukh, who had been the Finance Minister under Jawarharlal Nehru. 

Indira Gandhi appealed to the Congress MPs and MLAs to vote for Giri on the "voice of conscience." It was clear that she was backing Giri to the hilt to spite her detractors who were described as the "Congress Syndicate." A large number of party MPs and MLAs voted for Giri who won by a little more than one per cent of the votes. 

This episode formalised the big split in Congress. Indira Gandhi led a big chunk away from the parent party to dominate the national stage for the next two decades.