Will Presidential polls be a test of Opposition unity?

The 2022 Presidential polls could turn out to be a test for the unity among the Opposition parties -- rather than pose a very serious challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's efforts to have a preferred person in the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

Everyone knows that the numbers in the electoral college that chooses the President favour the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Therefore, the fight by the Opposition parties in this regard will be a symbolic one -- or, as Congress chief Sonia Gandhi described, to show the people to elect a President, who can apply a "healing touch to its fractured social fabric and defend our Constitution."

Yet the Opposition leaders, particularly West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, are keen to see to it that a pattern is established. They want a weakened Congress to back their nominee rather than the other way around. So that the token fight against the NDA nominee is seen as being led by non-Congress parties with the Congress playing the second fiddle.

Mamata sees the Presidential polls as a test case ahead of the Lok Sabha polls of 2024. Her idea is to force Congress to abdicate the stewardship of the opposition in favour of the non-Congress parties that are opposed to the BJP.

She, like her Telangana counterpart K Chandrasekhar Rao, dreams of a scenario where, instead of the Congress,  the parties like the Trinamool Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Nationalist Congress Party, Shiv Sena, and the DMK lead the charge against the BJP in the 2024 elections.

She wants the Presidential polls to be a trendsetter. Her idea is that, in the event of a hung House in 2024 where the BJP does not have sufficient numbers to form the government, the Congress will be forced to take the backseat and back them to keep the Hindutva forces out of power.

In any case, these non-Congress parties cannot form a government without the Congress being a major partner.

However, Congress chief Sonia Gandhi has made it amply clear that her party cannot leave the maidan for these regional parties because it remains the principal Opposition party. If the non-Congress parties are serious about checking the BJP, they must support the Congress, she has observed.

So the Presidential polls will be a sore point between the Congress and the regional leaders like Mamata --unless they bury their individual ambitions.

In fact, Congress leaders say Sonia Gandhi had already reached out to leaders including Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee, and some other Opposition leaders. That is why after her discussions with other opposition leaders, she has deputed Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge to coordinate with other leaders, citing her ill health owing to Covid.

Sonia's line of argument is that "the nation needs a person as President, who can protect the Constitution, our institutions and citizenry from the ongoing onslaught by the ruling party. This is the need of the hour." Her call to the non-Congress parties is that "the time is ripe to rise above our differences for the sake of our nation and its people."

Keeping the sensitivities in mind, Sonia has not suggested any particular name so that consensus can be evolved on a particular name over discussions with other parties.

On her part, Mamata has written to leaders of political parties and chief ministers for an "opposition meeting" at the Constitution Club in New Delhi on June 15 with a view to finalise a common nominee. In her conversations with other leaders, Mamata has insisted that the non-Congress must take the lead in choosing the person to be the joint Opposition candidate against the NDA nominee.

Priority before Pawar

The names on her list range from former Union minister Yashwant Sinha (who is now a vice president in her party) to NCP chief Sharad Pawar who is in any case very reluctant to take up any cudgels because of his priorities.

The Aam Aadmi Party too has tried to sound Pawar in this regard. However, it is not clear yet whether Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin or KCR will toe Mamata's line.

On the other hand, Pawar is much more concerned about the slide in the clout of the Maha Vikas Aghadi rather than attempting for a top post for himself in Delhi.

Pawar is rather more keen that his daughter Supriya Sule is made Maharashtra CM and Uddhav Thackeray steps down after nominating a Sena leader ( perhaps, his son Aditya Thackeray) as deputy CM.

The coalition of the Shiv Sena, NCP, and the Congress was formed in 2019 to keep the BJP out of power because the Sena refused to back the BJP. This arrangement will complete three years in office this November. But the recent Rajya Sabha poll outcome has not enhanced Uddhav Thackeray's standing while the BJP under Devendra Padnavis is poised to stage a comeback of sorts.

BJP's game plan

In a bid to avoid criticism that it is deciding on the Presidential candidate unilaterally like in 2017, the BJP has authorised party chief J P Nadda and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to hold consultations with the NDA partners, the opposition parties, and independent MPs for a consensus choice.

The two leaders will be starting the process of consultation very soon. A committee was also set up in 2017 to consult with other parties when President Ram Nath Kovind was elected to the post. At that time, party president Amit Shah had authorised the current Vice President of India, M Venkaiah Naidu (he was minister for urban development then), then home minister Rajnath Singh and the late Arun Jaitley (who was finance minister) to consult with various parties. Without any round of talks, the BJP named Kovind. As expected, the opposition parties rejected the BJP's choice and made former Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar contest against Kovind who got more than two-thirds of the votes.

This time, the BJP is unsure of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (U) who is known to switch sides suddenly. Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan has already met with Nitish Kumar on the issue last month.

The BJP is also more than willing to take the support of parties like Andhra CM Y S Jaganmohan Reddy's YSRCP and Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal, which had supported Kovind last time. The BJP is also in touch with the AIADMK.

The BJP is confident Modi's pick will be the winner. The BJP-led NDA commands 5.26 lakh votes out of 10.86 lakh in the electoral college, which comprises elected members of the Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha, and the state legislatures. A plan is afoot to woo some Congress MLAs from Madhya Pradesh and Haryana and the Aghadi MLAs from Maharashtra to vote for its nominee.

With its latest win in the Rajya Sabha elections, the BJP thinks it has the ability to convince smaller parties and independents to swing votes in its favour.

The election for the next President of India will take place on July 18 as the term of BJP's first own President Ram Nath Kovind comes to an end on July 24.