Who will challenge PM Modi in 2024 depends on UP voters

New Delhi (India): The outcome of the elections in five states should answer two questions. Who will lead the challenge to unseat Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls? Or will Modi remain unchallenged because the scope for an alternative to the BJP is still an elusive proposition.

Uttar Pradesh voters, in particular, will hold the key to both the questions --because if Yogi Adityanath’s government wins a second term, he will not only be the first chief minister of the state  in 37 years to be returned to power for back-to-back terms but also ensure that the BJP remains the big national player for the parliamentary elections.

In fact, only four scenarios are possible after the ballots are counted on March 10.

Scenario 1: The BJP wins a two-third majority in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh assembly like it did in 2017. Modi gets a big thumbs up despite a slow economic recovery, farmers agitation over market reforms and post-Covid aftermath. Yogi is re-crowned CM and gets ready to play a larger role  in assisting Modi's plans for the BJP to work towards a third stint in the 2024 general elections. The BJP also takes Uttarakhand again, manages to form governments again in Goa and Manipur while Punjab settles between the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress.

Scenario 2: The BJP loses between 50 to 70 seats in UP compared to the 2017 tally but returns to form the next government with absolute majority. Yogi will definitely return as CM but his larger-than-life role in the BJP may get diminished.

Scenario 3. The BJP just about manages to cross the half-way mark in UP, gets a simple majority for staking claim to form the next government. Yogi's importance will get diminished though his return as CM is ensured but it will be marked by the revival of internal rivalry in the party.

Scenario 4: Modi gets a big setback as the BJP actually loses the UP elections. The Samajwadi Party does a surprising performance, giving a big boost to the opposition to revive itself to challenge Modi-led BJP. This verdict will be seen as a big shock for the BJP whose confidence to face the 2024 polls  under Modi will be shaken to the core.

Such an eventuality will also mean not just Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party but other regional leaders like Sharad Pawar of Maharashtra, Mamata Banerjee of West Bengal, M K Stalin of Tamil Nadu, and K Chandrasekhar Rao of Telangana will get a booster shot in the arm.

Then, of course, they may also start vying with one another for leading a combination of political parties and projecting an alternative to the BJP.

Of course, the Congress will appear to be left out of the game though Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra may draw satisfaction from the sliding popularity of the BJP. In any case, a split in the Congress cannot also be ruled out in the event of one of the other scenarios playing out.

The reality is that even the die-hard critics of the BJP do not believe it can easily lose a crucial election under Modi when he has personally undertaken a high voltage campaign.

Senior BJP leaders do admit that anti-incumbency issues could cost some seats to prevent a repeat of the 2017 verdict but they are still hopeful that the party will be in a commanding position. They attribute the BJP's strength in the UP polls to Yogi's record in improving law and order, implementing welfare schemes in a remarkable manner and helping in creating a huge constituency of "labarthis" (beneficiaries) through qualitative difference in ensuring free ration for hundreds of thousands of families since the outbreak of Covid-19 two years ago, besides ushering in 24x7 supply of electricity, improvement in infrastructure and other facilities.

Also, the opposition's strategists concede that the advantages enjoyed by the BJP far exceeds the factors benefiting the resurrection of the Samajwadi Party (SP).

In 2017, the BJP and its allies won 222 seats by margins of over 10 percentage points. Out of these 93 were won by margins of over 20 points and 129 by margins between 10-20 percentage points. Only 103 seats were won by margins of under 10 percentage points. So even if the SP manages to retain all the 47 seats it won in 2017 and wins these 103 seats, it would still be below the half-way mark.

Of course, Akhilesh Yadav's social coalition in the 2022 elections has given a big thrust to the SP's chances in the western UP as well as in Purvanchal. The SP-RLD alliance may have succeeded in winning over a sizeable Jat votes from the BJP as well as the Muslim votes, ending the rift between the two communities since 2013 communal riots. But the BJP could still keep to itself the support of numerous non-Yadav OBCs across the state.

By acknowledging the importance of Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) among the Jatav and Muslim voters, the BJP is also hoping that its support base remains unchanged-- though the average Muslim voter is known to back a party that he or she sees as the most competent to defeat the BJP.

The elections in UP (as also in Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur)  will also indicate the extent of the impact of the livelihood issues like lack of jobs, which has potential to damage the prospects of the BJP because its rivals have gone for an overdrive offering freebies.

Can Modi's charm and Yogi's appeal  negate this important factor? Barring Punjab where the BJP does not nurture any hope of a great performance, Goa and Manipur are not seen as very challenging for Modi and his team to retain power.

All through the seven phases of UP polls, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur, the BJP did not show that it was over confident of an easy win. Rather, it preferred to work desperately to win each and every seat.

That should have made the rank and file not to take victory in any seat for granted.