AI, other future technologies will be necessary — but not sufficient — for enacting UN’s pact for future

Amsterdam, Jul 22 (The Conversation) In September 2024, members of the United Nations adopted the Pact for the Future at the Summit of the Future, held in New York City.

The pact, including its two annexes on the Declaration on Future Generations and the Global Digital Compact, builds on multilateral agreements following the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The pact commits to “protect the needs and interests of present and future generations through the actions stated in the pact.” These actions address the digital divide, inclusion, digital space that respects human rights and promotes responsible governance of artificial intelligence (AI).

Additionally, the Declaration on Future Generations includes 10 principles and some actions. The pact also encourages accelerated development of AI, while considering both its positive and negative aspects within a broader aim to protect human rights.

Meeting needs As the former co-chair of the Earth Commission and current co-chair of the UN 10-member group, I have worked on incorporating justice issues within environmental studies. Along with my colleagues, we recently published an article where we explain how we have developed Earth system boundaries based on the principle of not causing significant harm to others as part of a broader human rights and Earth systems justice approach.

While the pact acknowledges and builds on the Sustainable Development Goals, it does not adequately take into account the latest science that shows we have crossed many safe and just Earth system boundaries. There’s also a challenge here: if we were to meet everyone’s minimum needs as required by the social Sustainable Development Goals, we will cross boundaries further.

A human rights approach The pact and its annexes make reference to justice, future generations and Africa. Justice is anchored in a human rights approach. The pact only mentions reducing harm in relation to digital platforms and explosive weapons, but this could be strengthened with the addition of the no-harm principle — not causing significant harm to human and non-human others — in other areas such as climate change. Other forms of justice are scarcely accounted for.

These include epistemic justice (or how different knowledge systems are included), and data justice (the right to create, control, access, apply and profit from data). Procedural justice — the right to information, decision-making, civic space and courts relating to the allocation of resources and responsibilities — is also vital.

Other important forms of justice include recognition justice, interspecies, and intragenerational justice. Earth system justice is needed to identify and live within Earth system boundaries and equitably share resources and risks.

The pact notes that “if we do not change course, we risk tipping into a future of persistent crisis and breakdown,” but it does not make reference to the latest science on planetary boundaries.

Climate justice We argue that implementing the pact requires recognizing how boundaries, foundations and inequality are inextricably are linked together. The Earth Commission argues that safe planetary boundaries are not necessarily just. To minimize significant harm to others, it may be necessary to have more stringent targets.

For example, 1.5 C is the proposed safe climate boundary for climate change, while 1 C is the proposed just boundary since, at this level, already tens of millions of people are exposed to extreme heat and humidity. Eight safe and just boundaries for climate, water, nutrients, biosphere and aerosols have been identified, seven of which have been crossed.

In terms of foundations, theoretically, meeting people’s minimum needs would lead to further crossing these boundaries. We need to recognize that living within safe and just boundaries requires meeting everyone’s minimum needs.

This requires deploying efficient technologies and redistributing resources to make up the deficit. But governments are reluctant to take this approach, probably because it limits the use of resources and sinks.

Technological support Living within climate boundaries will require a just transition. Globally, if we wish to remain below the safe climate boundary, we will have to completely stop using fossil fuels. Since most remaining fossil fuel reserves are in the developing world, this will put a heavy burden on them. At the same time, climate impacts are considerable, so finance for a just energy transformation is needed.

While the pact restates the importance of the 2030 agenda in bolstering sustainable development, it lacks a credible mechanism for monitoring whether the national pledges are implemented. This will require strong collaboration among policy, science and the private sector.

There is a wealth of information in Earth observations from space that can assist in monitoring progress. This information, if made available to researchers and policymakers, can be integrated into national, regional and global environmental risk assessments.

Digital twins are another technological development that can support these assessments. The European Commission’s Digital Twin of the Ocean, for example, is a virtual model. It integrates diverse ocean data sources and leverages the power of big data, advanced computing and AI to provide real-time insights and scenario simulations under a variety of conditions. Such systems can enhance our ability to cope with environmental challenges.

As AI is likely to dramatically develop in the few two years, it is critical to be ready to shape and use its potential in a positive way to implement the Pact while reducing its dependence on fossil fuels.

A ‘cash flow crisis’ Finally, the pact calls for urgent, predictable and stable funding for the UN and developing countries. This will enable UN bodies to deliver services and administer programs in accordance with international law. The UN Secretariat is facing a severe “cash flow crisis,” as major contributors are paying too late or too little.

The UN Honour Roll lists member states that have paid membership fees in full: 151 of 193 countries paid in full, but only 51 of them on time in 2024. Among 13 countries with assessed fees of more than USD 50 million, only Canada, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Korea, Germany and Italy paid on time.

With most members paying late, and large ones not paying till later or only partially, this severely constrains the ability of the UN to provide planned, impartial and inclusive services to the global community.

There is also a need for funding to enable developing countries to adapt and transform. But if such funding comes through loans, this may further exacerbate existing developing country debt: in 2023, developing countries made debt repayments of USD 1.4 trillion.

We need redistribution of resources. Until then, it is critical that new technologies such as AI are deployed to help us return within the boundaries and meet minimum needs without exacerbating climate change through its fossil fuels dependence. The UN plays a critical role in facilitating human, environmental and earthy system justice, but shrinking resources hamper its ability to deliver. (The Conversation) SKS NSA NSA