Iran regime change unlikely despite killing of supreme leader Ayatollah

Massachusetts (The Conversation): A veteran US diplomat now teaching at Tufts University said the scale of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran points to an attempt to push regime change, but argued that toppling the Islamic Republic will be difficult and a large US ground deployment is unlikely.

Donald Heflin, executive director of the Edward R. Murrow Center and a senior fellow of diplomatic practice at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, made the assessment in an interview with The Conversation’s US politics editor Alfonso Serrano.

Heflin said the strikes appeared likely to continue for a few more days and predicted the opening phase would focus on “command and control” targets, the centres used to direct Iran’s military. He pointed to media reports that the residence of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was attacked.

He said President Donald Trump’s public call for Iranians to bring down their government highlights the political end goal, but added that a popular uprising against a tightly controlled state is hard to pull off without weapons and organisation.

Heflin also cautioned that the US has a history in the region that makes such calls risky. He cited the 1990–1991 Gulf War period, when the US encouraged Iraqis to rise up but stopped short of Baghdad, and said such episodes are remembered across the region. He said he would be surprised if protests in Iran had a realistic chance of bringing down the regime.

On the question of US troops on the ground, Heflin said a large-scale intervention was unlikely, though limited special forces deployments could occur quietly. He said any president would view a major ground deployment as extremely risky given Iran’s size and military capacity, with the possibility of heavy casualties and uncertain outcomes.

He also said Trump’s record suggests he prefers air power and limited operations over large troop commitments, arguing that war brings unpredictable consequences.

Heflin said Trump faces multiple risks. One is Iranian retaliation that hits a high-value target and causes significant casualties, including in Israel or at a US military base. Another is that the strikes fail to remove Iran’s top leadership, leaving Washington politically exposed.

He said even if senior figures are taken out, succession could still produce outcomes the US does not want. Heflin argued that Iran’s system has enough depth to survive the loss of several leaders, and said the key question would be who emerges in top jobs. He said the Revolutionary Guards, in particular, are the strongest institution positioned to fill any vacuum.

Heflin said the timing is notable because external strikes can also trigger “rally around the flag” reactions when bombs start falling. He argued that Trump could try to justify intervention by pointing to Iran’s recent crackdown and the scale of deaths during protests, but warned that the strategy becomes harder to sustain if the next step is to ask unarmed civilians to topple the state. Heflin said he does not expect the regime to fall to street protests alone.