Experts skeptic over Bangladesh election, fear 'manipulation' over voting

Dhaka (PTI): Leading political analysts on Wednesday expressed skepticism as Bangladesh is set to hold general election on Thursday under an interim regime in a changed political landscape, with some cautious about “uncertainties” and “manipulation” over polling.

Bangladesh will hold its 13th parliamentary elections on Thursday – the first since the ouster of prime minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League in massive student protests in August 2024.

The centre-right Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) pitted against its longtime ally, far-right Jamaat-e-Islami, in the absence of now disbanded Hasina's Awami League in the election described by Interim government chief Muhammad Yunus in his last nationwide address overnight as the best and most historic election.

“But uncertainties remain over what kind of election it will be,” said prominent economist and political analyst Debapriya Bhattacharya, who headed a major committee of the outgoing interim administration on the corruption of the ousted Awami League regime.

Asked if Yunus’ promise of a “new settlement for a new Bangladesh by pushing a reset button,” Bhattacharya said and added, “but the gap is being seen” in the candidate selection process, doubts about voter participation and old practices – money, muscle and influence – again becoming dominant.

Yunus might have an aspiration, but there is a gap in “aspiration and capability and we are feeling that gap every day,” Bhattacharya, the founding executive director and currently a distinguished fellow of leading think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue, said.

“There are still many uncertainties: Will everyone be able to vote freely? If they do, will their votes be properly counted? So, we cannot judge until the entire process is over,” he told PTI.

Bhattacharya said the interim government knew that authoritarian power concentration within the ruling party and “family-based politics” had crippled the state – yet they did not address this structurally.

Leading TV talk show host and executive director of Centre for Governance Studies (CGS) Zillur Rahman echoed the sentiment as he said most people expected the election to see the end of the interim government, which could not deliver its promised reforms.

“My fear centres around what would be the scenario of the election day and post election period,” he said.

Rahman said despite its stigmas since 1971 -- opposing Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan -- Jamaat was able to create a space largely, “visibly with interim government's backing and western support for geopolitical reasons, using its regimented party structure.” “But if the voter turnout is high, BNP could win but if it is low, Jamaat could benefit,” Rahman told PTI.

Explaining the BNP weakness, a former BNP lawmaker preferring anonymity said, BNP's new chairman Tarique Rahman’s “family oriented politics” could be a disadvantage for the party as his physician wife and lawyer daughter are portrayed as important figures giving Jamaat an edge.

“(Yet), I think, the people of Bangladesh have not turned so crazy to vote for a party (Jamaat) which was opposed to the very foundation of the country,” pointed out Sabir Mostafa, political affairs writer and former chief of Bangla service of BBC and Voice of Bangla services.

But, he said, the issue of “election manipulation” remained as a real fear factor. Most analysts, however, said the disbanded Awami League, despite its current political wilderness, commands a huge support and their role would largely influence the voting.

Hasina, who is in exile in India since her ouster, encouraged her party supporters and activists to boycott voting, but most analysts said a significant segment from her lot would cast their ballots because of ground level realities, including security concerns.

According to newspaper reports, local Awami leaders, who were exposed to persecution for the past 18 months, appeared on BNP election campaign stages chanting their party’s “Joy Bangla, Joy Bangabandhu” slogans and extending support for BNP candidates at places.

In some other areas, they were trying to woo Jamaat while in both cases they sought to ensure security of their life and livelihood in the post August 5, 2024 period, the media report said.

The analysts, however, said a large number of Awami League supporters would boycott the voting being led by a sense of disfranchisement.

Jon Danilowicz, former deputy head of the US mission in Dhaka, called the election as a “real test” of the country’s political class.

“The real test of Bangladesh’s political class will take place on February 13. Will they be able to accept the verdict of Bangladesh’s voters and play their respective roles in helping to build a new Bangladesh? If not, then the odds of history repeating itself will rise,” Danilcowicz, who still keenly follows and comments on Bangladesh’s political affairs, said in a post on X over the weekend.