Informal talks between Indian, Pakistani officials in third-party countries may help de-escalate tensions: UK experts

London: Leading UK strategic experts believe an attempt to coordinate informal talks between Indian and Pakistani officials in third-party countries may offer a possible prospect to restore stability following the recent military escalation in the region.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think-tank, last week held a session entitled ‘The India-Pakistan military conflict and prospects for regional stability and security’ to weigh up the political and security considerations of the conflict in the region.

It came ahead of an all-party delegation led by BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad bound for Europe, arriving in the French capital of Paris on Sunday to present India’s counter-terrorism stance and Operation Sindoor in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22 that claimed 26 lives.

“India and Pakistan have emerged from their 100-hour military conflict with strongly differing and disputed narratives,” said Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow and Head of the South and Central Asian Programme.

“India has refused to talk or trade with Pakistan until all terror attacks against India end," he said. When, or if, that happens, India has stated that it will focus only on terrorism and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) in any future talks with Pakistan, he noted.

"Pakistan is likely to challenge these preconditions for talks and is currently seeking international intervention towards this end,” he said.

“In this context, the regeneration of private and informal ‘track 1.5’ dialogues between Indian and Pakistani senior officials and influential experts held in third-party countries provide the best immediate prospect of a return to regional stability,” he added.

India has made it clear that it will only have a dialogue with Pakistan on the return of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and the issue of terrorism.

India has always maintained that the Kashmir issue is a bilateral matter and there is no space for any third party.

With reference to the all-party delegation, set to arrive in the UK next week following talks in other capitals of Europe, Roy-Chaudhury believes the focus will be on showcasing an all-India consensus and sensitising the international community over India’s counter-terrorism doctrine.

“I think the focus of these delegations will be really on sensitising the international community on how to counter terrorism emanating from Pakistan,” he said.

Desmond Bowen, IISS Associate Fellow for South and Central Asia, pointed to the wider global interest in this regional conflict.

“The world is interested in this because the world is interested in the possibility, and indeed the avoidance of a nuclear war… in that context, the risk has clearly shot up, deterrence failed on both sides and the chance of misreading across the India-Pakistan divide is a lot higher now than it's been for many years,” said Bowen.

Antoine Levesques, IISS Senior Fellow for South and Central Asia, focussed on the military technology aspects of the conflict earlier this month.

“India has made a very big narrative of the Make in India implications of what it sees as its successful use of military equipment during that campaign, and this will have an impact on India's ability to market itself as a defence supplier,” he said.

Viraj Solanki, IISS Research Fellow for South and Central Asia, highlighted the implications of the “disputed and differing” narratives between the US, India and Pakistan on the May 10 ceasefire.

India and Pakistan reached an understanding on May 10 to end the conflict after four days of intense cross-border drone and missile strikes.

“Three differing narratives raise many questions on the sustainability of the ceasefire over the medium to long term. And I think this is fundamentally because there is no joint statement between India and Pakistan on the ceasefire, as there was for the 2021 ceasefire which held for four years,” said Solanki.