Iran’s continuing drone, missile attacks pose challenge for US and allies

Leiden (The Conversation): If Israel and the United States hoped their attacks on Iran would quickly force the country to capitulate, those expectations appear misplaced. Despite the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior officials, Iran has managed to continue firing drones and missiles at targets across the Middle East.

This poses a challenge for the United States and its allies, including Israel and the Gulf states. The concern is that they might run out of air defence systems before Iran runs out of airborne projectiles.

The US and its allies use a number of weapons platforms to knock down incoming missiles and drones. The most important are THAAD interceptors, Patriot missile systems and Standard Missile (SM) family naval missiles, while Israel also uses longer-range Arrow interceptors. However, the supply of these interceptors has been under severe strain in recent years.

Many have been provided to Ukraine, which faces relentless aerial assaults from Russia. Others have been used in the Red Sea to protect shipping against attacks by the Iran-aligned Houthis. Additional systems have been stationed in the Indo-Pacific to defend South Korea and Taiwan from possible attacks by North Korea and China.

Despite their importance to modern warfare, US stockpiles of these munitions are believed to be dangerously low. There are simply too many competing priorities, and production has only recently been increased. The 12-day war the US and Israel fought against Iran in June 2025 is thought to have consumed around a quarter of the entire US inventory of THAAD interceptors.

When stocks of these munitions diminish during a war, choices have to be made about which targets to protect and which cannot be prioritised. This usually means focusing on the defence of strategic military installations while allowing some civilian areas to be hit. Israel is widely believed to have adopted such an approach during the 12-day war.

That moment may be approaching again. However, this time it is not just Israel that is at risk, but several other Middle East countries as well.

The main problem lies in the Gulf states, which are within range both of the long-range missiles that Iran fires at Israel and its shorter-range projectiles.

These Arab countries can also be hit more easily by Iran’s Shahed explosive drones. The drones are much easier to launch than missiles, require less risk to deploy and can reach some targets in the Gulf within minutes. Iran is believed to possess around 80,000 of them.

Thick black smoke was seen rising above the Jebel Ali Port in Dubai after debris from an intercepted Iranian missile fell in the area.

Ukraine has faced this type of attack mix for years and has developed complex, multi-layered air defence systems to counter it. This approach involves using expensive interceptors – a single Patriot missile costs around US$4 million – to destroy ballistic missiles, while cheaper methods, including machine guns, are used to shoot down drones.

It is an effective system that has kept Ukraine in the fight and ensures it does not use too many interceptors.

The Gulf states, however, appear to be relying heavily on expensive systems such as Patriot missiles to intercept everything from ballistic missiles to relatively inexpensive drones costing as little as US$20,000.

Missile defence systems are designed to launch several interceptors at each incoming projectile, meaning their stocks can run down quickly. As a result, the Gulf states may soon be forced to shift their tactics.

Stocks running low

Even though the Gulf states are the most exposed, the situation is also concerning for Israel and US military forces stationed across the region.

Some US bases are within range of Iran’s Shahed drones and short-range missiles, while others are vulnerable to long-range missile attacks.

The exact size of missile defence stocks is classified. However, defence budget and procurement data suggest that US forces could become stretched within days or, at most, several weeks.

At that point, the US may have to begin drawing down missile defence stocks from other parts of the world.

According to South Korean media reports, discussions are already underway about removing THAAD and Patriot systems from South Korea and sending them to the Middle East. Ukraine would receive fewer systems, and US military readiness could be degraded globally, potentially encouraging aggression or the opening of a second front.

The other side of the equation is Iran’s capabilities, which remain uncertain. Long-range missiles are believed to be the type of munition it has the least of, and they are also the riskiest to launch.

The US and its allies are likely to degrade Iran’s ability to launch these missiles over time. However, whether this will happen quickly enough to avoid a critical shortage of interceptors remains uncertain.

Iran’s short-range missiles and drones present another challenge.

The drones, in particular, can be launched without large, visible weapons platforms, making them harder to target through US and allied air strikes.

If Gulf air defences become significantly degraded, a wide range of targets could be vulnerable – ranging from US bases to oil and gas infrastructure and commercial shipping.

Ultimately, the level of preparedness among the US and its allies for a prolonged conflict appears limited. Even if Iran exhausts its long-range missiles, it could probably continue drone attacks for a long time, disrupting energy production and shipping across the region and potentially pushing up global oil prices. (The Conversation)