Minister of Foreign Affairs of Maldives visits India as presidential elections loom

New Delhi: Abdulla Shahid, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Maldives, is currently undertaking an official visit to India on July 11-12, 2023. This visit comes at a crucial time for the Maldives, with the national elections scheduled just two months later September 9.

The election administration process, including the preparation of the voter list and other logistical aspects such as ballot boxes and return officers, has already been completed. By the first week of August, the final list of candidates vying for the 87 seats in the People's Majlis (Parliament) will be released.

The upcoming presidential election has attracted significant attention, with so far five candidates expressing their interest in running for the position.

Among them are the present President Ibrahim Mohamad Solih and Mohamed Nasheed, earlier a member of the Maldivian Democratic Party and now head of his political party called “The Democrat.”

Additionally, Abdula Yameen, the former president and leader of the Progressive Party of Maldives, Mohamed Nazim, the former Minister of Defence and National Security and leader of the Maldives National Party, and Qasim Ibrahim, the former Speaker of the Parliament and leader of the Jumhooree Party, are also in the race.

Abdulla Shahid's visit to India announced beforehand, is part of a series of high-level exchanges between the two countries aimed at strengthening bilateral cooperation.

This visit holds global significance, as it contributes to the momentum of substantive collaboration between Maldives and India. International observers, including representatives from the US, EU, and other countries, will be present in Maldives to observe the forthcoming elections.

During his visit to New Delhi, Foreign Minister Shahid will hold discussions with Dr S Jaishankar, the External Affairs Minister of India, covering a range of topics including bilateral, regional, and international issues of mutual interest.

Additionally, he will meet non-resident ambassadors and high commissioners accredited to the Maldives, who are based in New Delhi. Notably, both ministers will witness the exchange of project development agreements under Indian grant assistance to the Maldives.

Maldives holds a special place in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of 'SAGAR' (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and India's 'Neighbourhood First Policy' due to its strategic location as India's key maritime neighbour in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

As the country prepares for the upcoming presidential polls, the Election Commission has already finalized the revised voter list and announced the setup of 604 ballot boxes within the Maldives and abroad.

Overseas countries, including India with two locations (Trivandrum and New Delhi), will have polling centres for Maldivians living in India.

Meanwhile, political dynamics within the Maldives Parliament have become increasingly complicated since the formation of the Democratic Party led by Mohamed Nasheed.

Nasheed resigned from the Parliament along with 12 other members to establish the new political party. While the new party is open to joining forces with the main opposition party led by Abdullah, they have requested the removal of the "India out" campaign from their list of demands.

The upcoming elections in Maldives have broader regional implications, attracting the attention of regional powers with their strategic interests. The rivalry between India and China, particularly in the maritime domain, is a significant factor.

China's expansion into the Indian Ocean since 2008 has fuelled India's concerns about encroachment into its traditional sphere of influence.

China's growing presence is linked to its aim of preventing a foreign power from gaining control over the Malacca Straits, a vital route for China's trade and energy supplies. Additionally, China seeks to advance its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) through infrastructure and connectivity projects.

India perceives China's growing presence in the region as a challenge and is keen to prevent China from establishing naval bases surrounding the Indian littoral.

Both India and China are seeking to influence the politics of the Maldives. Traditionally, the Maldives has been a close ally of India, given their proximity and socio-cultural ties.

India has played a significant role as a security guarantor for the Maldives and has provided financial assistance for development projects, including the Greater Male Connectivity Project.

However, the political landscape in the Maldives is evolving, and different candidates hold varying perspectives on their country's relations with India and China.

The outcome of the 2023 presidential election will have a direct impact on the balance of power in the Indian Ocean Region.

If President Solih secures re-election, the Maldives is likely to continue strengthening ties with India while maintaining engagement with China but maintaining caution regarding BRI projects.

On the other hand, if Abdula Yameen returns to power on the platform of an "India Out" campaign, it could represent a setback for India, potentially resulting in closer ties between the Maldives and China.

As Maldivians prepare to cast their votes, the political landscape in the Maldives is entangled with geopolitical competition, particularly between India and China, as they seek to secure their interests in the region.