Assembly polls: Road to Mumbai goes via Vidarbha; BJP, Congress eye big win in region

Nagpur, Nov 19 (PTI) Maharashtra's Vidarbha region, which accounts for 62 of the 288 assembly segments, has historically played a decisive role in state politics and both BJP and Congress are vying to win maximum seats here in the November 20 polls to strengthen their claim to power.

Once a stronghold of the Congress, the region in eastern Maharashtra with Nagpur as its nerve centre saw the BJP making inroads in the 1990s and helped in giving the saffron party its first chief minister - Devendra Fadnavis - who served a full five-year term from 2014 to 2019.

Besides Fadnavis (Nagpur South West), currently a deputy CM in the Mahayuti government, several political heavyweights are in the fray in different seats in Vidarbha, which is once again expected to play a key role in deciding who gets the control of Mantralaya (state secretariat) in Mumbai.

These heavyweights include state Congress chief Nana Patole (Sakoli seat in Bhandara), Maharashtra BJP president Chandrashekar Bawankule (Kamptee in Nagpur district), Leader of Opposition in the outgoing assembly Vijay Wadettiwar of the Congress (Brahmapuri in Chandrapur district) and forest minister Sudhir Mungantiwar of the BJP (Ballarpur in Chandrapur district).

According to political analyst and senior journalist Ramu Bhagwat, historically the political party that wins most seats in Vidarbha gets to rule Maharashtra.

That is the reason the two national parties BJP and the Congress -- pivotal players in the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), respectively -- are concentrating on the 11 Vidarbha districts which account for 62 assembly constituencies.

While the BJP is contesting 33 per cent, or 47 seats in Vidarbha, of the nearly 150 allotted to it in the state, the Congress, which has fielded candidates on a total of 102 constituencies, is fighting on 39 segments in the region.

"The region also assumes significance as at least two potential chief ministerial candidates, the BJP's Fadnavis and state Congress chief Patole are from this region," he said.

Bhagwat pointed out that in 2014, the BJP put up an outstanding show, winning 44 of the 62 seats in Vidarbha, a tally which helped the saffron party form its first-ever government in Maharashtra.

However, in the 2019 polls, the BJP suffered a setback as its tally dropped to 29.

What could be a cause of major concern for the BJP is that in the Lok Sabha elections early this year, the Congress got a big boost in Vidarbha as it won seven seats, while the saffron party did poorly, winning just two constituencies (Nagpur and Akola). Its ally Shiv Sena, headed by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, bagged Buldhana.

The Lok Sabha election results showed the Congress was ahead in 42 assembly segments and the BJP just 19.

In a region known for cotton and soybean crops and which is in the grip of farm distress, the BJP and the Congress are involved in head-to-head fights in 35 seats. Recent elections show that in direct fights, the BJP scores better.

Considering that the voting patterns are vastly different in Lok Sabha and assembly elections, the election outcome could be decided by factors like narratives floated by each party and issues raised by them. While the BJP is harping on unity with slogans like 'ek hai toh safe hai' (together, one is safe) and 'batenge toh katenge' (if divided we will perish), the Congress has clutched on to the 'Constitution in danger' pitch that paid off in the Lok Sabha polls.

"With the RSS (headquartered in Nagpur), which was missing in action during the Lok Sabha polls, now making it up with renewed vigour and its cadres fanning out in favour of Mahayuti candidates, the BJP-led alliance looks on a strong ground in Vidarbha," opined journalist Bhagwat.

Bhagwat said another factor that may influence voters is the flood of freebies offered by the MVA as well as the Mahayuti. The BJP is hoping the Mahayuti government's Ladki Bahin Yojana would draw a large chunk of women's votes in its favour.

The Congress' prospects may he hit due to the presence of rebel candidates in several seats, he stated.

Journalist Jaideep Hardikar, a core team member of the People's Archive of Rural India (PARI), said Vidarbha is crucial for the BJP and the Congress because both the parties are contesting the bulk of their seats here.

"If the Lok Sabha trends hold, the Congress will gain here," he maintained.

Hardikar said two other factors will also be important in deciding the outcome -- how much votes are garnered by smaller players such as the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) led by Prakash Ambedkar or sub-regional parties and independent candidates.

"I sense there is anti-incumbency against the Mahayuti. Plus the sluggish soybean and cotton prices are turning the rural peasantry angry. Unlike 2014 and 2019, when the BJP made gains in Vidarbha, I think they are staring at a setback this time," emphasised Hardikar.

He further said that the BJP's promise to intervene in soybean and cotton prices came too late.

The BJP's major political problem in Maharashtra is this that they don't have a pan-state OBC leader to pull votes in their favour, Hardikar noted.

Political journalist Atul Mehere said Vidarbha's legislative support decides who forms the government in Maharashtra.

He felt the Congress will do better than the BJP in the region.

How the Vidarbha electors have voted will be known on November 23 when results are declared. PTI CLS RSY