Bihar Opinion Poll: Will Jan Suraaj Party be the kingmaker as NDA and MGB lock horns?

New Delhi: As Bihar gears up for its crucial assembly elections, a recent mood survey indicates that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan are in a neck-and-neck contest, with the NDA holding a slim lead of just 1 per cent.

The comprehensive 45-day survey, conducted by the People's Pulse Research Organisation from August 1 to September 15 across all 38 districts of Bihar, captured the electorate's sentiments through open-ended dialogues and purposive sampling.

According to People's Pulse, the state's 243 seats are set to not only determine Bihar's future but also influence the broader landscape of Indian politics.

The organisation claimed that its methodology involved 15-20 daily group discussions, validated by political observers and academics, to provide a robust set of insights rooted in grassroots realities.

The study engaged diverse voices from urban and rural areas, young and old, and across various castes and communities.

It highlights a closely fought battle between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan (India Alliance), with the NDA ahead by a mere 1 per cent.

This volatile scenario suggests that caste loyalties, ticket distribution strategies, and alliance cohesion could be decisive factors. Without a unifying narrative, voters in Bihar are dealing with ongoing grievances and rival promises, paving the way for an outcome that could reshape the state's political future.

The survey projects the following vote shares for the major alliances and parties:

(Note: All figures are within a ±3 per cent margin of error.)

This near-deadlock echoes the narrow margins of the 2020 elections, emphasising the role of micro-factors such as candidate selection, Tejashwi Yadav's efforts to reach across castes, and JSP's ability to draw anti-incumbency votes.

Unlike past polls, marked by the 2005 anti-Lalu wave, 2010's "suThe comprehensive 45-day survey, conducted by the People's Pulse from August 1 to September 15 across all 38 districts of Bihar, captured the electorate's sentimentsshasan" mandate, 2015's anti-BJP sentiment, or 2020's focus on jobs, the 2025 elections lack a cohesive narrative.

Respondents are more concerned with local issues, MLA performance, and infrastructure gaps than national topics like SIT probes. Caste continues to be the foundation of voter decisions, now infused with communal tones in areas like Mithila and Simanchal.

Anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar's NDA, driven by inflation, unemployment, and migration, is splitting between the MGB and JSP, making the latter a potential kingmaker rather than a outright winner.

Ticket allocation is emerging as a key battleground. The Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), who make up 36 per cent of voters, are showing willingness to support the MGB if it expands representation beyond its Muslim-Yadav (MY) base, similar to Akhilesh Yadav's "PDA" (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) strategy in Uttar Pradesh's 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

However, cutting MY tickets could spark internal rebellion, especially given Tejashwi's relatively weaker control compared to Akhilesh. For the NDA, internal conflicts over seat-sharing with Chirag Paswan's LJP(RV) or Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM could undermine its narrow advantage, potentially benefiting the MGB.

Deep-seated voter frustrations span demographics. Youths highlight joblessness as a persistent issue, women point to inflation's impact on households, and families lament migration's effect on Bihar's development. Both state and central governments are under scrutiny, but caste loyalties are tempering economic criticisms.

The NDA faces the bulk of anti-incumbency, with EBCs, often not direct beneficiaries, displaying tentative openness to the MGB, indicating shifts in traditional voting patterns.

Perceptions on law and order are polarised: NDA supporters warn of a return to "Jungle Raj" from Lalu Prasad Yadav's era, while MGB backers criticise rising corruption, commissions, and violent crimes.

Nitish Kumar's JD(U) contends with views of his age (74) and fatigue, yet retains loyalty from EBCs, Dalits, and women. The survey counters notions of widespread youth disenchantment, portraying Nitish as a stabilising force, imperfect but unparalleled, amid a shortage of alternatives. Farmers, divided by caste, do not form a unified bloc, further fragmenting rural opinions.

Women, constituting half the electorate, are leaning strongly toward the NDA, bolstered by JIVIKA networks involving millions. They commend Nitish's initiatives like prohibition, increased widow pensions, and stipends for para-government workers, establishing him as a "silent weapon."

Youths, while outspoken on employment and education, acknowledge caste's influence, viewing Nitish in a balanced light: neither fully heroic nor villainous, but a provider of relative progress.

Bihar's electoral landscape is a complex mosaic of caste dynamics. The following table outlines key caste groups, their population percentages, and primary allegiances:

The Voter Adhikar Yatra, despite its energy, has not realigned castes, leaving EBCs as the pivotal swing vote. JSP's statewide "mahaul" generates buzz but lacks dedicated voters, depending on rebels for momentum.

Rahul Gandhi's Yatra, a locally driven event, attracts crowds but fails to add new caste groups to the MGB, reinforcing existing patterns. Tejashwi's charisma appeals beyond Yadavs, but Congress's weak organisation and hesitation to yield leadership undermine coordination. Welfare schemes are central, as detailed below:

The BJP (28-29 per cent) capitalises on its organisational strength, digital campaigns, and women-centric schemes, increasing turnout by 5 per cent since 2020. However, dependence on Nitish for EBCs and absence of a local CM face pose risks, core voters revere Modi but distrust Nitish and favour Chirag.

RJD (30-31 per cent) relies on its MY-Kushwaha-Dalit base, amplified by the Yatra, but dynastic perceptions and EBC doubts cap its expansion; Congress's Muslim advances and Yadav communalism pose threats.

JD(U)'s "optionlessness" bolsters Nitish through EBC-Dalit-women-Kurmi loyalty, despite health worries. Congress covers various castes but weakens without RJD support, lacking OBC depth. LJP(RV) leverages Paswan charisma (5-6 per cent) and its 2024 success, but NDA tensions could cause fractures.

VIP bolsters MGB in Nishad areas; HAM-RLM offer symbolic support; Left parties gain via CPI(ML); AIMIM (1-3 seats) revives through Waqf issues but diminishes post-Yatra. JSP disrupts without winning seats, targeting youth.

The following table summarises projected party-specific vote shares and strengths: