Caste Census: BJP walks a tightrope between Hindutva and Mandal politics

New Delhi: The Cabinet's nod to conduct a caste-based census on Wednesday upended years of calibrated resistance by the Narendra Modi-led government and has potentially opened a new front in the politically volatile Hindi heartland.

The move signals a tactical shift by the BJP, compelled more by the realities of ground-level caste arithmetic ahead of the 2025 Bihar assembly elections than by ideological alignment.

Until now, the BJP's position on the caste census was unequivocal: it opposed counting caste groups in the Census, wary of fragmenting its pan-Hindutva consolidation, especially in politically crucial states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The fear within Sangh Parivar circles was that caste enumeration would revive the competitive identity politics of the 1990s, fracturing the OBC base the BJP has carefully cultivated over the past decade.

But with political rivals, from the Congress to regional players like the RJD and SP, doubling down on social justice narratives and demanding enhanced reservations for OBCs based on their population share, the BJP appears to have recalibrated its strategy.

By taking charge of the caste census process, the Centre aims to prevent opposition parties from cornering the narrative on backward caste empowerment.

The BJP's initial resistance also stemmed from its ideological discomfort with the Mandal legacy.

The last caste count was conducted in 1931 by the British, on the basis of which the Mandal Commission later estimated that OBCs made up 52% of India's population.

This led to the historic 27% reservation in government jobs announced by then Prime Minister VP Singh in 1990, a move that sparked protests and redefined Indian politics.

The BJP, then lacking a backward caste presence, countered by launching the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation to build an alternative, religion-based unity.

Ironically, over the past two decades, the BJP itself underwent a process of "mandalisation," inducting OBC leaders into its hierarchy and gradually broadening its social base beyond its upper-caste core.

Leaders like Keshav Prasad Maurya, Devendra Fadnavis, and Bhupendra Patel exemplify this shift. But a full-fledged caste census threatens to unravel this delicate balance. Competing caste demands could challenge the party's unified Hindutva pitch and reignite old fault lines.

The Centre's latest move is aimed at blunting opposition momentum while ensuring that the process remains under its administrative and political control. By approving the caste census as part of the larger national enumeration exercise, the Modi government ensures it cannot be outflanked by state-led surveys such as the recent one in Karnataka.

Yet, challenges persist. The caste census cannot begin until the administrative boundaries are frozen, a process that has already been pushed to June 30, 2025. With the Census taking at least 11 months to complete in two phases, it is unlikely that caste data will be available next year.

Moreover, the census is to be India’s first digital and self-enumerated exercise, requiring extensive training and technological preparedness. While the government allocated Rs 3,676 crore for the Census in the 2022 budget, the process was stalled due to the pandemic and political concerns over its potential overlap with the NPR and NRC.

These delays have drawn criticism from economists and planners, who argue that the absence of up-to-date data is hampering evidence-based policy making, especially in poverty alleviation schemes.

In approving the caste census now, the Modi government has taken a politically risky yet calculated gamble. It may be betting that controlling the process will help it manage both the political fallout and the expectations of diverse caste groups.

Whether this move will consolidate the BJP's hold over its OBC support base or create new caste-based fault lines remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the countdown to Mandal 2.0 has officially begun.