Delimitation and disparity: Experts weigh in on population debate, suggest long-term policy changes

New Delhi, Oct 24 (PTI) Days after Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu urged the people of his state to raise more children, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin made a similar request of his people - spotlighting concerns over population control in the country's south.

While experts blamed distrust among the southern states in the delimitation process and the thought of being punished for successful family planning for the statements, they cautioned that this could undo the progress made over decades in population control and suggested long-term policy changes.

According to S Y Quraishi, former Chief Election Commissioner and author of "The Population Myth", the consequences of delimitation based on population has been the concern of southern Indian states since the Delimitation Act was passed in 1971.

"South Indian states protested that because we have declined our population, you are going to reduce the number of seats in the Lok Sabha for us. So which is discrimination... instead of being rewarded for a successful family planning programme, you're punishing us,” Quraishi told PTI.

Stalin said at a mass marriage event in Chennai on Monday that the Parliament delimitation process may encourage couples to have many children and give up thoughts of a small family.

The Tamil Nadu chief minister's comments came two days after Naidu said there was need to manage the population in Andhra Pradesh given that there will be an increase in the aging population.

"Till 2047, we will have the demographic dividend, there will be more youngsters. After 2047, there will be more old people…if less than two children are given birth (per woman), then the population will reduce. If you (each woman) give birth to more than two children, then the population will increase," Naidu said on Saturday.

There is concern among southern states that the delimitation process based on population may reduce their representation in Parliament, penalising them for successfully implementing population control measures. In February this year, the Tamil Nadu Assembly also passed a resolution opposing the delimitation process.

Naidu’s statement stems from a decline in the young population due to migration and as a result of a successful family planning programme.

The Andhra Pradesh chief minister pointed out that the population growth rate in his state has fallen to 1.6 per cent compared to the national average of 2.1 per cent in 2021, while the state’s elderly population has risen to 12.4 per cent in 2021, surpassing the national average of 10.5 per cent.

“Obviously, when the population declines, the population of older people increases because there are fewer births of young children,” Quraishi explained.

Yogesh Pawar, programme director of Population First, pointed out that the People's Representation Act, 1951, which allocates parliamentary seats based on population, gives more political clout to highly populous states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

“For instance, Maharashtra, which contributes significantly to the national exchequer, receives only 3 paise for every rupee it sends to the Centre, whereas Uttar Pradesh and Bihar receive Rs 14 in return,” Pawar told PTI.

With the upcoming census, there are concerns that the delimitation of Lok Sabha seats and the distribution of central funds based on population could unfairly disadvantage southern states compared to their northern counterparts.

Poonam Muttreja, executive director of the Population Foundation of India, cautioned against this outcome, and said delimitation may result in decreased financial allocations for these states.

“It’s crucial that we find a win-win situation that supports states with effective family planning rather than penalising them,” she said.

However, she also criticised the statements from the southern leaders, warning that they could reverse the progress made in population stabilisation and women's education.

“States like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have achieved significant milestones in family planning, and we risk undoing that progress,” she said.

According to Tamil Nadu State Policy on Senior Citizens - 2022 highlighting the report “Elderly in India 2021” from Ministry of Statistics and Programme, the senior citizen population in the state is projected to rise from 1.04 crore in 2021 to 1.42 crore by 2031.

By this demographic trend, seniors are expected to constitute 18.2 per cent of the state’s population by 2031, raising significant concerns about the state's ability to support its aging citizens.

However, the solution does not lie in raising more children but making policy changes that support the elderly population while empowering the youth.

“We have to have policies for senior citizens. For instance, if we increase the retirement age from 60 to 65 or 70, their productivity is prolonged. So the problem will be deferred and delayed by 10 years. Secondly, we have to have long-term welfare measures so that they are economically independent,” Quraishi noted.

He added that the young generation could invest in policies that post-retirement they're not dependent on anybody.

“So we will have to have a look at our economic policy to take care of this problem because it's a long-term issue and we have to find long-term solutions,” the former CEC said. PTI UZM PIRZADA MAH MIN MIN