From mulling solo run to agreeing for Sena tie-up, BJP reworks strategy to win BMC polls

Mumbai, Dec 24 (PTI) As Maharashtra heads towards high-stakes civic elections, including the BMC, the BJP appears to be carefully recalibrating its alliance strategy with the Shiv Sena, balancing organisational ambitions with electoral pragmatism and longer-term political considerations.

Multiple sources indicated the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is reluctant to offer the Shiv Sena more than 60 seats in the 227-member Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) for the January 15 polls, a number that falls short of expectations of the party led by Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.

The situation is further complicated by the evolving political dynamics in adjoining Thane district, Shinde's political turf, where the BJP has been steadily expanding its organisational base.

Within the BJP, which heads the state's ruling coalition Mahayuti in alliance with the Shiv Sena and NCP, the initial inclination was to contest the Mumbai civic polls on its own, a position rooted in the argument of "justice to party workers".

Senior leaders, including Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, had repeatedly described local body elections as polls of party cadres, signalling a solo contest would allow the BJP to field more candidates and expand its grassroots presence. This thinking also aligned with the party's recent electoral successes and its belief it had organisational strength to take on opponents independently.

However, this approach appears to have softened following a few internal surveys and feedback from the just concluded municipal council and nagar panchayat elections. For instance, in these elections, the Shiv Sena, led by Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, won more seats in the Konkan division than the BJP.

According to a senior BJP legislator, the party observed a "sizeable and sustained" response for the Shinde-led Shiv Sena in several pockets, particularly in urban and semi-urban areas.

"We noticed that while the BJP remains strong overall, there is resistance in some pockets of Mumbai, especially in areas with a large economically weaker section population," the legislator maintained.

"In civic elections, the personal connect of candidates, their accessibility and local image often matter more than party affiliation. Voters tend to support individuals they know and trust, sometimes cutting across party lines," he noted.

This assessment has fed into a broader concern within the BJP that a completely separate contest could inadvertently help the Shiv Sena consolidate or even expand its network in Mumbai, home to India's biggest and richest civic body with an annual budget of more than Rs 74,000 crore.

Another senior BJP leader pointed out that if both parties were to fight independently, the Sena would get an opportunity to contest all 227 wards of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), potentially helping the party spread its footprint in areas where it currently has limited presence.

"A solo contest also carries risks If the BJP's candidate selection is weak in some wards, it could benefit the Shiv Sena. Strong local aspirants denied BJP tickets may choose to contest on Sena tickets, win, and later align themselves with the Mahayuti. Over time, this could enhance the Sena's bargaining power, not just in civic bodies but also in future legislative council and assembly polls," he argued.

Political observers said this explains the BJP's preference for an alliance framework that allows it greater control over seat-sharing and candidate selection.

"In an alliance, the BJP would likely have the upper hand in ward allocation and ticket distribution," a Mumbai-based political analyst contended.

"It would also be easier to hold the Sena leadership accountable if there are rebellions or cross-contests against official Mahayuti candidates," the analyst opined.

These strategic considerations have, however, led to visible unease within the Shiv Sena.

On December 16, Mumbai BJP president Ameet Satam and party's state cabinet minister Ashish Shelar held talks over poll alliance with Shiv Sena leaders, including former MP Rahul Shewale and MLA Prakash Surve.

Soon after the meeting, Shiv Sena leaders privately expressed dissatisfaction over the BJP's approach to negotiations with a crucial ally.

"If we are allies, how can one party dictate which seats the other should contest? It should be our prerogative to identify wards where we believe we can win. Alliance does not mean surrendering political judgement," a senior Sena leader stated.

Another Shiv Sena functionary alleged that the BJP was keen to push the Shinde-led Sena towards wards where Muslim voters play a decisive role, traditionally areas where the national saffron party has had limited electoral success.

"These are difficult seats. The perception is that the BJP wants Sena candidates to contest there, which could cap the Sena's seat tally," said a close aide of Deputy Chief Minister Shinde.

Observers note that Shinde faces a delicate balancing act.

While the Deputy CM may have to settle for fewer seats in the BMC as part of a broader compromise, retaining influence and leverage in the Thane Municipal Corporation remains a key priority for the Sena leader, they pointed out.

As negotiations continue, the emerging picture suggests that the alliance talks are less about immediate electoral arithmetic and more about managing growth, influence and future bargaining power within the ruling coalition and keeping potential challengers in check. PTI ND RSY