Global temperatures now predicted to rise 2.3-2.5 degrees C: UNEP report

New Delhi, Nov 4 (PTI) Global temperatures are now predicted to rise between 2.3 and 2.5 degrees Celsius this century if countries fully implement their national climate pledges, down slightly from 2.6-2.8 degrees Celsius projected last year, according to a new report.

However, current policies would still put the planet on a trajectory of 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming, compared with 3.1 degrees Celsius projected last year, said the United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2025.

The marginal improvement, the report said, stems largely from methodological updates and recent national pledges, but the world remains "off target" to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

It warns that the global multi-decadal temperature average will exceed 1.5 degree Celsius within the next decade, at least temporarily, unless countries act rapidly to limit the overshoot to around 0.3 degree Celsius and bring temperatures down by 2100.

Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP, said, "Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target. While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop." Released just days before world leaders gather for UN climate talks, the report has found that only a third of the 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement, ”covering 63 per cent of global emissions, ”submitted new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) this year.

It also highlighted that the G20 bloc, responsible for nearly 77 per cent of global emissions, is not collectively on track to achieve even its 2030 targets, let alone the deeper 2035 reductions needed to stabilize global temperatures.

The report showed that global greenhouse gas emissions hit a record 57.7 gigatonnes of CO2‚‚ equivalent in 2024, a 2.3 per cent increase from the previous year.

Deforestation and land-use changes accounted for over half of this rise, while fossil fuel emissions also continued to grow. Among the world's top emitters, India and China recorded the highest absolute increases, while the European Union was the only major economy to see emissions decline.

UNEP warned that to limit the overshoot and give the world the best chance of returning to 1.5 degrees C by the end of the century, global emissions must fall by 26 percent by 2030 and 46 percent by 2035 compared to 2019 levels.

Climate experts described the report's findings as a wake-up call ahead of the next round of negotiations.

Rachel Cleetus of the Union of Concerned Scientists called the data "alarming, enraging and heart-breaking", blaming "years of insufficient action from richer nations and continued obstruction by fossil fuel interests".

Richard Black, Director of Policy and Strategy at Ember, said national renewable energy plans "paint a more optimistic picture" of the clean energy transition, while Catherine Abreu of the International Climate Policy Hub stressed that "it isn't the Paris Agreement that's failing,” it's a handful of powerful G20 countries who are failing to do what they've promised".

Despite modest progress, UNEP concluded that without swift and large-scale emissions cuts, the world risks locking in catastrophic levels of warming that will "hit the poorest and most vulnerable the hardest". PTI UZM KVK KVK