How illegal immigrants are hijacking votes and redrawing Bengal politics

New Delhi: Decades of significant and unchecked illegal migration from Bangladesh have profoundly altered West Bengal's political, demographic, social, and cultural landscape.

This shift, facilitated by porous borders and entrenched networks, is now producing severe consequences: a powerful electoral bloc, an exodus of Hindus from their ancestral areas, conflicts driven by demographic pressure, open declarations of radical visions, and an escalating fight for the state's very survival. Urgent action is deemed necessary.

Securing vote bank that controls narrative

The influx of Bangladeshi Muslims has created a dominant electoral force, particularly in West Bengal's close elections. Muslims now constitute nearly 30% of the state's electorate, or about 2.25 crore voters, holding a majority in 74 out of 294 assembly constituencies.

This large voting bloc, amplified by illegal infiltrators who obtain voting rights using fake documents, has led parties like the Trinamool Congress (TMC) to prioritise a policy of appeasement. This strategy secures a steadfast base that provides not only votes but also on-ground enforcement.

Political scientist Aveek Sen notes that Bangladeshi-origin Muslims are "highly vulnerable" and depend on the TMC for protection from deportation, ensuring their "unwavering loyalty."

The TMC is alleged to orchestrate the return of migrant workers, predominantly Bangladeshi-origin Muslims, before polls with incentives and travel arrangements, many of whom then serve as "goonda bahini," or intimidators.

Sanjeev Gupta estimates that 75-80% of Bengal’s 3.34 crore outbound migrants are Muslims, including illegals who secure documents before moving on to other states for work.

The 2024 Kaliganj bypoll in Nadia district, where the TMC won in a 58.5% Muslim electorate, exemplifies this dynamic. TMC's rival, the BJP, highlighted the opposition vote-splitting strategy employed by the TMC against them. Notably, the BJP secured nearly 73% of the votes in Hindu-majority booths, reflecting the community's anxieties.

A potential disruption is the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) 2025 electoral roll revision, which seeks to remove non-residents.

With an estimated true figure of over three crore outbound migrants over the decades, deletions in Muslim-dense areas like Murshidabad could jeopardise the TMC's hold on 45-50 closely-won seats. TMC is challenging this, but BJP counters that those living and working elsewhere should be removed from the rolls.

Shrinking majority: Hindu exodus from border areas

Beyond politics, a gradual weakening of Hindu communities is occurring in border areas due to infiltration and systemic pressures. In Baduria, North 24 Parganas, the Hindu population has dropped from about 68% in the 1970s to 32% today. Kaliganj, which was 58% Hindu in 1951, fell to 41.36% by 2011, with projected drops driven by illegal migration and different fertility rates.

Personal accounts from places like Sandeshkhali describe Rohingya infiltrators, allegedly backed by TMC networks, seizing land, harassing women, and intimidating Hindus, an issue locals call "land jihad."

Displaced locals recount being forced to sell their properties and move as the incoming population grew aggressive and objected to Hindu festivals. This outflow contributes to Bengal's 3.34 crore migrants, with some Hindus seeking refuge in safer areas within the state or in other states like Assam and Odisha.

Environmental factors in Bangladesh, such as cyclones and rising seas, are compounding the influx of economic and persecuted refugees across the 4,096-km border, only 80% of which is fenced.

Demographic pressure and radical influence fuel conflict

Demographic tensions have made Bengal volatile, with pressure-driven conflicts frequently erupting. According to the Centre for the Study of Society and Secularism (CSSS), communal incidents surged 84% nationwide in 2024, with Bengal prominent in festival-related clashes.

The 2017 Baduria unrest involved widespread chaos and family displacement. Radical influences are accused of fueling such events; madrassas in Baduria are said to instil prejudice, producing figures with terror links like Tania Parveen.

Recent incidents, such as the 2023 Ram Navami violence in Howrah, have been labelled "pre-planned," with alleged rooftop assaults asserting territorial claims.

Ministry of Home Affairs probes into the 2025 Murshidabad Waqf protests, implicating suspected Bangladeshi elements.

The alarming vision of an Islamic republic

High-profile statements have escalated fears of radical transformation. In July 2024, TMC minister Firhad Hakim was recorded addressing an iftar, calling non-Muslims "blighted people" and advocating conversion. This echoed his prior statements, including labelling Garden Reach a "mini-Pakistan" and urging Muslims to "become a majority" for justice.

These comments are seen as reflecting ideological incursions in madrassas across Murshidabad and Malda. A probe in April 2025 exposed Bangladeshi radicals, allegedly supported by the TMC, fueling the Waqf violence.

The TMC’s 2024 Lok Sabha success, boosted by 30% Muslim votes, is thought to discourage self-restraint. Displaced locals report a shift toward dominion, including the alleged imposition of edicts by Rohingya enforcers, which threatens the state's pluralism.

The crisis facing Bengal's heritage and Hindu survival

The peril for Bengal's Hindus, custodians of the state's blended heritage, is one of core identity. Accounts describe temples vandalised with "kafir" slurs and Rohingyas intimidating natives. An April 2025 clash in Dhulian displaced over 400 Hindus.

Demographic forecasts are alarming: Muslims, who were 27% in 2011, could reach 35% by 2030, driven by a higher fertility rate (2.4 versus Hindus' 1.8) and an estimated 15% illegal migration through unfenced borders. Former Vice-President Jagdeep Dhankhar warned in March 2025 that "demographic engineering" endangers nationalism. Historian Amiya Basu stated that Bengal's Hindus are "shrinking to a minority in their cradle."

Socioeconomically, infiltrators are accused of monopolising welfare schemes and displacing Hindus from their lands. A 2025 National Commission for Women report on Murshidabad highlighted a "complete governance breakdown."

Urgent action demanded to secure Bengal's future

West Bengal's crisis is a confluence of a 4,096-km porous border, the TMC's reliance on the vote bank, and instability in Bangladesh. The result is a splintered society and weakened national unity.

Suggested remedies include fortified border fencing, deportations via the CAA, document checks, and emulating Assam's anti-extremism efforts and land evictions. Vigilance requires bipartisan action: the TMC addressing radical elements, the BJP tempering its rhetoric, and civil society engagement. The future of Bengal's diverse heritage may hinge on the 2026 elections, but immediate action is called for.