India TV-CNX opinion poll predicts hung assembly in Karnataka

New Delhi: The opposition party Congress may emerge as the single largest party in the Karnataka assembly elections, but may fall eight seats short of a clear majority, says the India TV-CNX opinion poll which was telecasted on the news channel today.

The opinion poll projections show, Congress may win 105 seats in the 224-seat assembly, while the ruling BJP may win 85 seats, followed by Janata Dal(S) which may win 32 seats. 'Others' may win two seats.

In the 2018 elections, BJP won 104, Congress won 80, JD(S) won 37, and 'Others' won three seats. 

Vote share projections show Congress may get 40.32 per cent, BJP may get 35.5 per cent, JD(S) 17.81 per cent, and 'Others' may get 6.37 per cent.

In the 2018 elections, Congress got 38.04 per cent, BJP got 36.22 per cent, JD(S) 18.36 per cent and 'Others' got 7.38 per cent votes. 

Caste, Community-wise vote share

Caste and community-wise projections show, Congress may get 75.3 per cent of Kuruba votes, 15.11 per cent of Lingayat votes, 17.57 per cent of Vokkaliga votes, 40.56 SC votes, 34.58 per cent of OBC votes, 42.35 per cent ST votes, and a whopping 78 per cent Muslim votes.  On the other hand, BJP may get 15.14 per cent Kuruba votes, a whopping 75.8 per cent Lingayat votes, 17.39 per cent Vokkaliga votes, 39.6 per cent SC votes, 51.7 per cent OBC votes, 32.18 per cent ST votes and only 2.07 per cent votes. The projection shows JD(S) may get 56 per cent of Vokkaliga votes. 

Region-wise projections

The India TV-CNX poll projections region-wise show, BJP and Congress may share 15 seats each in Greater Bangalore (32 seats total), while JD(S) may get two seats.

In Central Karnataka having a total of 21 seats, BJP may win 13 and Congress may win eight seats. 

In the Hyderabad Karnataka region, having a total of 40 seats, Congress may sweep by winning 32 seats, BJP may win six and JD(S) may win two seats.

In Old Mysore having 62 seats, Congress may win 26 seats, JD(S) may win 28 seats, and BJP may win only seven seats. 'Others' may win the remaining one seat.

In Coastal Karnataka having 19 seats, BJP may win 15 and the Congress may win 4 seats.

In the Bombay Karnataka region having 50 seats, BJP may win 29, Congress may win 20 and 'Others' may win one seat. 

Preference for chief minister

The survey findings showed, Congress leader and former CM Siddaramaiah leading the list with 32.2 per cent of respondents wishing to see him as the next CM, followed by 26.83 per cent favouring the current incumbent Basavaraj Bommai. 16.37 per cent opted for JD(S) leader and former CM H D Kumaraswamy, while 10.97 per cent favoured BJP leader and former CM B S Yeddyurappa. Only seven per cent preferred Congress leader D K Shivkumar for the CM post. 

The opinion poll survey was carried out by CNX among 11,200 respondents (5,620 males and 5,580 females) in 112 out of a total of 224 seats. The respondents were selected randomly keeping in view demographic, professional and migration.