Nagrota bypoll: BJP wins, but reduced margin raises concerns

New Delhi: BJP, by winning the Nagrota bypoll, has sent a clear message that it remains the dominant, if not the only, political force in the Hindu-majority areas of the Jammu region. The victory was a foregone conclusion, but the margin offers little comfort to the party.

The BJP fielded Devyani Rana, daughter of Devender Rana, who passed away last year. Devender Rana, contesting on a BJP ticket, had won the seat in the 2024 Assembly elections by a margin of 31,000 votes, polling 48,113 votes. His nearest rival, National Conference candidate Joginder Singh, had secured 17,641 votes.

Devyani’s victory was expected, and for several reasons. She rode a clear sympathy wave. Devender Rana had nurtured the Nagrota constituency for his political growth. He had won here in the 2014 Assembly elections on an NC ticket, defeating BJP’s Nand Kishore, brother of sitting MP Jugal Kishore, by about 4,000 votes, polling around 24,000 votes. Over a decade, and even after switching political sides, he nearly doubled his vote tally.

Devyani Rana secured 42,350 votes, winning by a margin of 24,647 votes against her nearest rival, Harsh Dev Singh of the Jammu & Kashmir National Panthers Party (India), who polled 17,703 votes.

However, the dip of around 6,000 votes, both in total votes polled and in the victory margin, should worry the BJP. The sympathy factor helped, but it did not generate the wave many expected.

The National Conference almost gave her a walkover by fielding DDC member Shamim Begum as its candidate. Devender Rana was a close friend of CM Omar Abdullah before switching over to the BJP, so the choice of candidate by the NC made it clear that Omar didn’t want to give a tough fight to Devyani in her first election.

Muslims account for about 20,000 of the roughly 98,000 voters in this constituency. Neither a Muslim nor a woman has ever won here. Even former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah addressed just one rally, which he left midway after speaking for about eight minutes when the microphone stopped working.

This was also the first election in J&K, particularly in the Jammu region, where neither Prime Minister Modi nor Home Minister Amit Shah campaigned. The final result suggests the limits of local leadership in mobilising support. The dip in the margin also reflects the internal resentment within the party.

The denial of a ticket to Nand Kishore, a strong contender who has worked on the ground for two decades, shows that ignoring local leaders can cost the party.

Devyani’s success rests more on her father’s legacy, the sympathy factor, and gestures of goodwill from leaders like Omar Abdullah, a close friend of Devender Rana, than on the organisational strength of the party alone.

The surprising element is the 17,703 votes polled by Harsh Dev Singh, who had never contested from Nagrota before. He had lost the 2024 Assembly election from Chenani to BJP’s Balwant Singh Mankotia by about 15,000 votes. That a political outsider to this constituency, though a former minister, managed to secure so many votes indicates internal dissent within the BJP and resentment in the Brahmin community.

Brahmins account for about 22,000 votes, the largest community vote share in the constituency. MP Jugal Kishore Sharma won from here in 2002 and 2008, when the BJP was largely confined to Jammu district, reflecting the community’s political weight.

They have felt sidelined for some time. The denial of a ticket to Nand Kishore Sharma and a perception that Devyani’s campaign was dominated by a Rajput coterie may have deepened this resentment, benefiting Harsh Dev Singh.

The National Conference, which traditionally enjoys some support here, secured only about 10,000 votes this time. In 2024, when it fielded Joginder Singh, it secured about 17,000 votes. Joginder Singh, contesting on an AAP ticket this time, received just 359 votes. The Gujjar community, largely Muslim and about 20,000 strong, clearly did not back the NC candidate. A sizeable section may have voted for the BJP, as Devender Rana had cultivated ties with the community.

The win does not add to the BJP’s seat tally, but the result exposes challenges for the party: the limits of local leadership, internal factionalism, and the electoral X-factor of the Modi-Shah duo. The absence of the Congress, which did not contest here and performed poorly in the Bihar elections, underscores the party’s continued decline in the Hindi heartland.