Nepal unrest: Observers dig into conspiracy theories behind violence and protracted power transfer

Kolkata, Sep 11 (PTI) Even as strife-torn Nepal awaits a fresh start to nationhood amid concerns over the route it will chart, uncanny resemblances with the violent overthrow of establishments in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have led observers in the Himalayan nation to consider the possibility of a “larger conspiracy” involved in the persisting anarchy.

Currently at the threshold of, what many believe, the formation of a caretaker interim government following the explosion of Gen Z’s digital revolt over Nepal’s endemic corruption and nepotism that forced Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and his cabinet to resign and go into hiding, observers cannot help but notice the sharp parallels in the mechanism of protracted transfer of power in all three countries in the sub-continental neighbourhood.

“I don’t see any conspiracy being hatched before September 8, the day Gen Z organised their spontaneous protests seeking justice. But the vandalism and the mindless violence that have taken place since then are clearly the handiwork of external and unknown actors,” said Namrata Sharma, Kathmandu-based senior journalist and vice president of the Nepal chapter of South Asian Women in Media (SAWM).

Sharma maintained that there has been no investigation so far into identifying these people, and there was an urgent need for such a probe.

“This escalation was definitely not part of Gen Z’s plan. It seems now that these external forces were keenly observing the initial developments from the sidelines and jumped into the fray, taking advantage of the situation, finding that the time was suitable for such acts,” she told PTI.

Like in Nepal, it was the youth, mainly students, who first took to the streets in Dhaka in August 2024 to protest the controversial government job quota system which quickly transformed into nationwide protests and met with a harsh crackdown from authorities.

The subsequent collapse of the Sheikh Hasina government happened in the wake of one of the most violent phases of the former prime minister’s 15-year rule, where hundreds were killed within weeks. The choice of Nobel peace laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus to spearhead the interim government was decided by students leading the revolt, with the army actively mediating in the process.

The people’s unrest from March to July 2022 in Sri Lanka, which eventually led to the ouster of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa regime, also rejected partisan political banners of the opposition.

The criticism against the Rajapaksa government came from mismanagement of the Sri Lankan economy, which led to a subsequent economic crisis involving severe inflation, daily blackouts, and a shortage of fuel, domestic gas and other essential goods.

Sights of civilian mobs storming government establishments while conducting loot and arson, with armed troops raiding those buildings to forcefully remove protestors, were common in all three instances. In Sri Lanka, like in Nepal, the government’s ban on social media triggered mass protests which erupted following an evidently brewing discontent over misgovernance.

“The conspirators in Nepal have lit the fire but have little control over the means to douse the flames,” said CK Lal, author and political analyst.

“Going by the nature of coordinated attacks that have happened across the country, it seems some preparations have been made behind them for quite some time. The social media ban lasted for only four days. There’s no way such violent repercussions could have been orchestrated across the country in such a short span,” he explained.

Lok Raj Baral, former Ambassador of Nepal to India, said despite the resemblances to the violent toppling of governments in neighbouring nations, the situation in Nepal still had its differences.

“In Bangladesh, the ruling Awami League was banned and Sheikh Hasina fled the country. But in Nepal it is not so. The major political parties still remain here and I have reasons to believe that they will soon return,” he said.

Baral, though, stated that despite the absence of clarity, the presence of “outsiders” to the Gen Z agitators in the continuing violence couldn’t be ruled out.

“Within the country, there are groups of disgruntled elements who do not want the constitutional setup to remain in its present form,” he said.

Sharma highlighted the crucial geo-political location of Nepal in stating her hunch about “external influences” in the country’s internal matters.

“We are bound on both our north and south by two powerful neighbours, China and India, respectively. Western nations also keep a close eye on Nepal for its geopolitical location. So, there’s always a possibility of interference in our internal matters,” she said.

Ramesh Parajuli, Senior Researcher with Nepal-based NGO Martin Chautari, said such influences, if at all, were not clear at present.

“To normal people like you and me, stability and harmony in a country are desirable for neighbouring nations because prosperity spills over. But policymakers think differently. They feel that unstable powers are easier to manipulate and control. Their logic and reasoning are different from those of ours,” he said. PTI SMY NN