NewsDrum AQI forecast: After farm-fire surge, Delhi AQI seen near 309

New Delhi: Delhi’s air is likely to slip back into the “very poor” band on Friday, November 7, according to NewsDrum’s farm-fire-based forecast. Using our model that links Punjab’s previous-day stubble-burning incidents to the Capital’s next-day AQI, the projected 24-hour average for Thursday is around 309.

The jump is consistent with the region’s fire activity on November 6. The latest CREAMS bulletin shows a sharp surge to 1,023 rice-residue burning events across the six tracked states. 

On November 6, Punjab recorded 351 stubble-burning incidents against 94 a day earlier, an increase of 257 cases, roughly 3.7 times higher than November 5. 

Haryana rose to 35 from 13 (+22; ~2.7×), while Uttar Pradesh climbed to 200 from 74 (+126; ~2.7×). 

Rajasthan inched up to 83 from 70 (+13; ~1.2×), and Madhya Pradesh surged to 354 from 131 (+223; ~2.7×).

Punjab alone remains the single largest source area for Delhi’s next-day air, which is why it anchors our model. 

NewsDrum is the first outlet in India to publish daily AQI predictions directly built on satellite-detected stubble-burning data. 

With 351 Punjab fires on November 6, the model returns ≈ 309 for 7 November, squarely within the 301-400 “very poor” range.

As always, meteorology can nudge the outcome. Stronger winds or unexpected moisture can disperse pollutants; calm conditions can trap them. 

Based on recent performance, actual AQI can drift by ±25–30 points around the projection. We publish both the forecast and this expected range to keep readers informed about the uncertainty.

With farm fires still elevated in the peak harvest window, Delhiites should brace for another hazy day on Thursday. NewsDrum will continue to update the forecast nightly, tying countryside fires to city smog in near-real time.