NewsDrum AQI forecast: Delhi air to stay ‘Severe’ today, slight relief by Wednesday

New Delhi: Delhi’s air is set to stay in the “Severe” band through Tuesday evening, driven by Punjab’s 440 farm-fire detections on November 9. 

The smoke from that surge typically reaches the NCR after a one-day lag when winds are calm and the mixing layer is shallow. That transport window explains the sharp rise in Tuesday morning’s readings.

On November 10, the regional fire load eased. Punjab fell to 133 detections. Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh also declined from their previous highs, and Rajasthan cooled slightly. 

With a lighter feed on November 10 and similar weather, Delhi usually sees only a modest step-down the following morning.

Based on this pattern, NewsDrum’s farm-fire model projects a 24-hour average AQI of about 420 at the 4 pm bulletin on Tuesday, keeping the city in “Severe.” 

By Wednesday morning, the level is likely to ease to around 380–390, still “Very Poor” and flirting with “Severe,” because night-time inversion will trap pollutants even with fewer fires upwind.

When Punjab and Haryana spike, Delhi’s AQI jumps the next day if winds are weak. When those states drop, relief follows, but slowly, because residual smoke and local emissions accumulate overnight before mixing improves after sunrise.

We publish a single number and an expected range. Actual readings can drift ±25–30 points with late-night changes in wind speed, humidity, mixing height or local sources. The direction of travel, however, matches the data: a severe evening on Tuesday, then a slight softening by Wednesday morning as upwind fires abate.