NewsDrum AQI forecast: Delhi’s air to worsen with AQI around 410

New Delhi: Delhi’s air is likely to deteriorate further on 9 November from “very poor” to “severe” xone, with NewsDrum’s farm-fire-based model, recalibrated on the full October–November series and adjusted for this week’s stagnant winds, projecting a 24-hour average AQI of 410 around the 4 pm bulletin.

NewsDrum is the first outlet in India to publish daily AQI predictions built directly on satellite-detected stubble-burning data. The series will run through November, offering a forward look at air quality rather than a post-mortem.

The forecast reflects two signals: a renewed rise in crop-residue fires across key source states and persistence of weak dispersion over the NCR. 

On 8 November, CREAMS recorded Punjab 100 → 238 (+138; ~2.4×), Haryana 35 → 42 (+7; ~1.2×), Rajasthan 83 → 120 (+37; ~1.4×), while Madhya Pradesh held high at 354 → 353 (flat). Uttar Pradesh eased to 158 from 200 (–42; ~0.8×). 

Despite UP’s dip by a few points, the overall regional fire load stayed elevated, led by Punjab and MP, and is likely to feed Delhi’s next-day pollution under calm conditions.

Our model remains intentionally simple: it correlates previous-day farm-fire count with Delhi’s next-day AQI, then adjusts for the prevailing dispersion regime. With regional fire activity still high and winds expected to remain weak, the projection for 9 November is 410.

Also read: Exclusive: Data links Punjab’s fire spikes to Delhi’s pollution within 24 hours

Disclaimer: NewsDrum stands behind its farm-fire-based forecasts because they draw on real satellite data and a clear, demonstrable correlation between residue burning and Delhi’s next-day air quality. At the same time, we are transparent about limits: actual AQI can drift ±25–30 points as wind speed, humidity and local emissions influence how pollutants disperse. That is why we publish both the single-figure forecast and the expected range.