Nitish appeal, Oppn campaign against SIR, PK factor await popular verdict in Bihar

New Delhi: Bihar elections are likely to settle the debate on whether the opposition has finally found a potent political plank in its protest against SIR or it will be another non-starter for the alliance, as the ruling NDA looks to maintain its firm grip on a state which has stood by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar since 2005.

However, questions about his health have persisted and a popular verdict will clear the air on whether the JD(U) president continues to endure as the talismanic helmsman in the state's electoral battle or Tejashwi Yadav as the de facto face of the Opposition can trump the chief minister, a feat that eluded his charismatic father, Lalu Prasad Yadav.

Kumar leads a coalition, which includes a BJP more formidable than ever in the state, with a proven numerical advantage over the RJD-led combine that has the Congress and the Left as allies.

The two alliances -- the NDA and Mahagathbandhan -- have fortified their coalitions with new allies for the assembly election in which poll strategist-turned politician Prashant Kishor has emerged as the X factor with his assiduous campaign projecting his Jan Suraaj Party as an alternative to the traditional alliances.

The verdict will also be seen as a referendum on the Election Commission's Special Intensive Review of electoral rolls in the state, an exercise which drew an energetic protest campaign from Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and backing from several regional satraps aligned with the main opposition party.

Whether the campaign against SIR, which the EC plans to roll out across the country, will be a boost to the Opposition or turn out to be a futile exercise unsupported by popular opinion, as believed by the ruling alliance, will be decided by the polls.

Gandhi had led a two-week-long "Voter Adhikar Yatra" in the state between August 17 and September 1, but the jury remains out if his charges against the EC of "vote chori" in alleged collusion with the ruling alliance have found an echo outside the Opposition's support base.

The BJP-led NDA has maintained that the SIR is aimed at weeding out infiltrators, and the Opposition's campaign against it is driven by vote bank politics.

The assembly election in Bihar will be held in two phases, polling for which will be held on November 6 and 11, while the counting of votes will be on November 14, Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar announced earlier on Monday.

The RJD is the principal force in the Opposition and the BJP is seen to have emerged as the strongest NDA constituent in Bihar ahead of the Janata Dal (United), but both coalitions are beset with their own challenges.

Despite enjoying solid support from two biggest voting blocs, Muslims and Yadavs, the RJD-led coalition has been unable to draw enough support from other communities to turn the tide, with the BJP-JD(U) coalition being successful in reminding them of the perceived misrule during the RJD's government between 1990 and 2005 and the "good governance" of Kumar since to ensure continued popular support for him.

Except in 2015, when Kumar had joined hands with Lalu Prasad Yadav-led RJD, he has fought all assembly polls as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Tejashwi Yadav has been trying to expand his coalition's social footprint, and the alliance is likely to give poll tickets to a large number of candidates from Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), which hold the balance of power and have more often than not backed the NDA, to ensure his party's return to power as the head of an alliance after 20 years.

A large chunk of the EBCs and numerically weaker Scheduled Castes have been central to Kumar's rise, besides Kushwahas and Kurmis -- two of the most numerous Other Backward Classes after Yadavs. He himself hails from the Kurmi caste.

However, NDA leaders are confident that their winning social alliance will remain intact and are hopeful that a bevy of development projects and welfare measures centred on youths and women, including Rs 10,000 cash transfer to nearly one crore women, will keep popular support on their side.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's enduring appeal and Kumar's longstanding goodwill despite some erosion are being seen as other factors favouring their coalition.

Critics have claimed that Kumar is serving his last days as chief minister and the BJP will not continue with him at the helm even if the NDA were to win, prompting several BJP leaders to assert that he will be heading their next government as well.

In a state dominated by two political alliances for close to three decades, Kishor has woven a political idiom centred largely around substantive issues and alleged failures of dominant parties but without any attempt to build a social coalition around castes, a rite of passage for almost every successful political party.

His sharp takes, especially on alleged corruption of some NDA leaders, the groundwork for over three years and track record as a successful poll strategist have garnered him and his Jan Suraaj Party a limelight that will be the envy of his more accomplished rivals in the electoral arena.

It, however, remains to be seen if that proves enough to earn his fledgling outfit enough popular legitimacy in an already fractured political field crowded with numerous satraps.

Union minister Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), which had walked out of the NDA in the 2020 assembly polls and successfully damaged the JD(U)'s prospects in nearly three dozen seats, is now part of the ruling alliance, and so is former minister Upendra Kushwaha.

Kushwaha was heading another front that included Mayawati's BSP and Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM.

The NDA had pipped the RJD-Left-Congress combine to a majority in the 243-member assembly in 2020, with 125 seats against the rival's 110. Closer still was the vote gap as the NDA bagged 37.26 per cent votes against the mahagathbandhan's 37.23 per cent.

Former minister Mukesh Sahni was with the NDA in 2020 but is now with the RJD, while Union minister Jitan Ram Manjhi has remained in the ruling alliance.

The combination of the two main alliances was the same in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in which the NDA had won 30 of the 40 seats and the Opposition 10, including independent Pappu Yadav.

The strength of NDA's social coalition ensured that despite suffering a decline from the 39 seats it had won in the 2019 national elections, it still maintained a big lead over the rival INDIA bloc, which had upset its apple cart in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh.