​​​​Pahalgam attack: India cuts Pakistan’s lifeline with Indus treaty axe

New Delhi: In a decisive response to the recent Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 lives, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan. This move, announced by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is poised to have profound implications for Pakistan's agriculture, economy, and overall stability.​

1. Agricultural devastation

The Indus River system is the lifeblood of Pakistan's agriculture. Approximately 80% of the country's cultivated land—around 16 million hectares—relies on water from the Indus and its tributaries. With 93% of this water used for irrigation, any disruption could lead to catastrophic crop failures, threatening food security for millions. ​

2. Economic strain

Agriculture contributes nearly 25% to Pakistan's GDP. A decline in agricultural output due to water shortages would not only impact food availability but also exacerbate unemployment and economic instability. Industries dependent on consistent water supply, such as textiles and sugar, may also suffer, leading to broader economic repercussions.​

3. Urban water supply disruption

Major Pakistani cities, including Lahore and Karachi, depend on the Indus system for drinking water and sanitation. A reduction in water flow could lead to shortages, affecting daily life and potentially causing public unrest. Given that Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed countries globally, the suspension of the IWT could exacerbate existing challenges.​

4. Energy production challenges

Pakistan's hydroelectric power generation, which relies heavily on the Indus and its tributaries, could face significant setbacks. Reduced water flow may hamper electricity production, leading to power shortages and affecting both residential and industrial consumers.​

5. Diplomatic and regional implications

The suspension of the IWT, a treaty that has withstood multiple conflicts since its signing in 1960, marks a significant escalation in India-Pakistan relations. Pakistan may seek international arbitration, potentially involving the World Bank, which brokered the original agreement. This development could strain diplomatic ties and impact regional stability.​

6. India's strategic shift

By suspending the IWT, India signals a strategic shift in its approach to cross-border terrorism, leveraging critical resources as a means of exerting pressure. This move underscores India's resolve to hold Pakistan accountable for its alleged support of terrorist activities.​

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India is a strategic action with far-reaching consequences for Pakistan.