Punjab’s farm fires just doubled. Will Delhi’s air choke again on Monday?

New Delhi: Farm fires in Punjab have jumped again, and this time the spike is hard to ignore.

Data from Punjab shows 122 stubble-burning incidents were recorded on 26 October. That is almost double the 60 cases reported on 25 October. The question now is simple and urgent: does this mean Delhi-NCR air is going to turn worse again in the next 24 hours?

This is not an academic worry. We have already seen what happens when the fires go up.

Between 19 and 22 October, when Punjab reported repeated high fire days – 67, 45, 62, 69 incidents – Delhi’s Air Quality Index (AQI) shot into the “very poor” band. Delhi’s AQI touched the 340-350 range and stayed above 300 for days. Gurugram spiked too, hitting the 370 mark, which is deep in “very poor”.

Then there was a brief pause.

When fire counts dipped – for example, 28 incidents on 23 October – Delhi-NCR also calmed down a little. Delhi’s AQI softened from the 350s to around 275–290. Gurugram also dropped into the “poor” band instead of “very poor”.

But that relief did not last. Fires in Punjab went back up to 49 on 24 October and 60 on 25 October. The very next day, on 26 October, Delhi was back in the 320+ AQI zone, which is again “very poor”. Authorities began warning sensitive groups to stay indoors.

Now we are looking at 122 farm fire incidents in a single day on 26 October. That is not just an increase. That is an escalation.

For Delhi-NCR, that matters because the pattern so far has been consistent: one day of heavy burning in Punjab tends to show up as a dirty, choking sky in Delhi the next day.

This is basic physics, not just politics. The smoke from paddy residue burning in Punjab doesn’t sit over Punjab. It rides north-westerly winds and moves straight into the National Capital Region. Once it mixes with Delhi’s own exhaust – vehicles, construction dust, local garbage burning – you get a toxic cocktail that pushes AQI into the “very poor” band (301–400). In that band, even healthy people are not supposed to exercise outdoors. People with asthma, bronchitis or heart disease are advised to limit exposure completely.

The risk now is that Delhi may be heading not just back into “very poor”, but towards “severe”, which is 401-500 on the AQI scale. “Severe” means breathing is unsafe for everyone, not just the vulnerable.

There is also a timing problem. We are entering the inversion season. Nights are cooler, winds slow down, and the dirty air does not clear out. Once pollution settles over the NCR in late October and November, it tends to sit like a lid. So whatever enters the air now – farm smoke, dust, vehicular load – hangs longer.

In other words, when Punjab’s fire count jumps from 60 to 122 in 24 hours, Delhi cannot afford to shrug.

What makes this politically sensitive is the annual blame game. Punjab says farmers have no alternative because paddy stubble has to be cleared fast for the next sowing, and machines and incentives are not enough. Delhi says “stop burning, you’re killing us”. The Centre says it is coordinating, then moves to emergency steps like construction bans and traffic restrictions in NCR. Everyone accuses everyone else of drama, and the public is left wearing masks.

But the day-wise data from mid-October till now cuts through the noise.

It shows two things very clearly.

First, farm fires are no longer a distant Punjab problem. They map directly onto Delhi’s lungs. When the fire bars rise, the AQI bars in Delhi and Gurugram rise right after. When the fire bars fall, the AQI cools for a bit. The smoke is travelling.

Second, the story is already shifting from “seasonal discomfort” to “health emergency window”. We are still in late October. Historically, the ugliest air in Delhi hits in early November. Yet we are already watching AQI in the 320-350 range on “bad” days. That is before Diwali, before crackers, before full winter trapping.

Now put 122 fires on top of that.

If this is the start of the main burning wave in Punjab – and not the peak – Delhi and its neighbouring districts should be preparing for another jump in the AQI charts, not debating whether stubble smoke matters.