Raj Thackeray has upper hand in alliance moves with Uddhav: Analysts

Mumbai: Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray seems to be dictating terms when it comes to a possible alliance with his cousin Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) ahead of civic polls in several cities in the state, including Mumbai and the surrounding metropolitan region, political analysts said on Sunday.

The Shiv Sena (UBT) has been weakened from the split in 2022 due to a rebellion by Eknath Shinde, while the poor showing in the assembly polls in November last year, where it won just 20 seats in the 288-member House, has been another dampener.

Many former corporators and leaders have deserted the Uddhav-led party, prompting him to seek Raj Thackeray's support to consolidate Marathi votes, these analysts pointed out.

The undivided Shiv Sena, founded by the charismatic Bal Thackeray, controlled the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, the richest civic body in the country, for nearly three decades till early 2022. However, in the 2017 civic polls in the metropolis, the BJP's tally was strikingly close to the Shiv Sena, highlighting that the latter's dominance was not impenetrable.

The BJP had sat in the opposition at the time and let Shiv Sena take control of the BMC, in the process also letting the Uddhav-led outfit take the blame for civic woes and face the perils of anti-incumbency. Incidentally, Thackeray's opponents have routinely accused him of treating the BMC as a cash cow.

Uddhav and Raj Thackeray found themselves on the same side on the three-language policy for schools, which both opposed claiming it gave primacy to Hindi over Marathi. The estranged cousins shared a stage after nearly two decades at a joint victory rally in Worli here on July 5 following the withdrawal of GRs on the three-language policy by the Devendra Fadnavis government.

The rally was attended by Uddhav Thackeray's son Aaditya and Raj's son Amit, with the bonhomie between leaders and workers at the venue further signalling a thaw in familial and political ties.

On July 27, Raj visited Uddhav at the latter's residence Matoshree in Bandra to wish him on his 65th birthday, while in August, Uddhav and his family visited 'Shivtirth', Raj's house in Shivaji Park area in Dadar, for Ganpati festivities.

In a podcast with filmmaker-actor Mahesh Manjrekar on April 19, Raj had said he was willing to "forget everything", a reference to the bitterness between him and Uddhav, for the cause of Marathi identity and Maharashtra's welfare.

On the same day, Uddhav responded by expressing readiness to resolve differences. On April 20, key Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut called it an "emotional exchange between brothers", giving rise to speculation about future cooperation between the two parties.

"Uddhav's push for an alliance follows his party's decline. In 2017, he absorbed six of seven MNS corporators after BMC polls, weakening Raj. Now, Uddhav needs Raj's urban Marathi base. Raj calls the shots. Uddhav's need for votes gives Raj leverage, especially after being ousted in 2006," a political analyst said on condition of anonymity.

"Raj remembers Uddhav's role in his exit. He negotiates from strength, knowing Uddhav's party is fragile," an MNS insider claimed.

Incidentally, Uddhav, Raut and Anil Parab met Raj at Shivtirth for a 2.5-hour discussion last week, focusing on BMC poll seat-sharing.

However, Raut later termed it as a family visit.

"Raut has been consistently saying Uddhav and Raj would come together. Even after spending more than two hours at Raj's residence, Raut changed the tone saying it was a family meet. It clearly means there must have been some strong stand from Raj Thackeray that may have put Uddhav and his party on the back foot and forced Raut to call it a family visit," the analyst said.

This puts Uddhav in a tough spot, he added.

Former journalist Sandeep Acharya opined that both the cousins need each other but most of their support bases overlap.

"Uddhav has gone to Raj seeking his support. It is true both need each other, but most of their support bases overlap. It may be a crucial point when it comes to seat sharing, and Raj will definitely seek a good outcome for his party," Acharya said.

There have been past instances when Raj had expressed his willingness to join hands with Uddhav, but the latter ignored him, he added.

"It cost Raj dearly. These factors will also matter now in these discussions. Uddhav will also have to assess that an alliance with Raj may add some votes to his kitty, but he will have to factor in the possible loss of support from Muslims and non-Marathi speakers, who have voted for his party during Lok Sabha and assembly elections," Acharya said.

Incidentally, BJP leaders like Ashish Shelar and Pravin Darekar have routinely brushed aside these developments as inconsequential to eventual poll results.

Shelar had called the Worli joint rally a "family reunion", while Darekar had said the chain of events showed Uddhav's "helplessness".

"Uddhav's helplessness is clear," Darekar said, adding that Uddhav had ignored Raj for 20 years.