Speculations rage about future of INDIA bloc in UP after Bihar election results

Lucknow, Nov 16 (PTI) The sweeping victory of the BJP-led NDA in the Bihar Assembly elections has caused ripples across the country, but perhaps more pronounced in politically crucial Uttar Pradesh, where Assembly elections are due in 2027. Political circles across Uttar Pradesh are abuzz with conversations about whether the model that helped the opposition secure substantial gains against the NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections can survive the shockwave sent from neighbouring Bihar. The results have not only boosted the morale of the ruling BJP, but have also introduced fresh doubts, tensions, and strategic recalculations in the opposition camp.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's sharp political attack -- calling the Congress "Muslim League" and a "Maoist" party and predicting an impending split in the party -- ”has further intensified the debate. His remarks are being interpreted as not just an assessment of the Congress' internal state but also as a strategic attempt to shape the political narrative ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections.

Political observers in Lucknow believe that PM Modi's comments will spark ideological as well as strategic discussions within the state's political framework. Parties desperate to revive themselves or retain their relevance will now look for a new benchmark of performance and organisational discipline in the face of the NDA's renewed confidence after the Bihar results.

The psychological battle in politics --” often as decisive as the electoral one --” appears to have already begun. Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav reacted swiftly to the Bihar verdict, calling the BJP "not a party but a fraud" while also conceding that there is still much that the opposition parties can learn from the BJP's electoral strategy.

On the other hand, Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya took a pointed dig at the opposition, saying, "After Magadh, now Awadh," suggesting that the BJP views the Bihar results as a precursor to a sweeping victory in Uttar Pradesh as well. The party is perceived to be preparing to use the Bihar mandate as a momentum-building tool among its cadre and supporters.

The Congress,” which had regained some political life in Uttar Pradesh through its alliance with the SP during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, now appears cautious. It is avoiding clear answers about the future of the grand alliance in 2027, possibly aware of the cracks that had widened after the joint SP-Congress defeat in the 2017 Assembly polls.

Commenting on PM Modi's remarks about an impending split in the party, UP Congress president Ajay Rai, who contested against PM Modi in Varanasi,” told PTI, "He should look at himself first. Why is he repeating what we say? What does he know about the Congress? We know our party better." His reaction reflects the Congress' attempt to project stability amid external predictions of fragmentation.

However, despite political posturing, a critical question now hangs in the air: Will the SP-Congress partnership --” which delivered 43 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2024 --” remain intact till 2027, or will friction arise as the Assembly elections approach? Political analysts argue that much of the opposition's future in the state depends on the unity and coordination of these two parties.

While both the SP and the Congress publicly maintain that "all is well," political history suggests otherwise. After the debacle of the 2017 Assembly elections, the alliance between Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav collapsed, ending the much-talked-about "UP ke ladke" partnership. The memory of that fallout still lingers.

Nevertheless, the 2024 Lok Sabha results revived their collaboration and boosted the opposition's morale. Many political commentators had begun predicting a stronger fight in 2027. But those predictions, they claim, have now been clouded by the Bihar election outcome. The opposition's planned campaign against Special Intensive Revision (SIR) regarding alleged "vote theft" has also been overshadowed, with doubts emerging over the opposition's capacity to challenge the NDA's expanding influence.

SP's national spokesperson and former minister Rajendra Chaudhary, however, dismissed notions of a political setback. Speaking to PTI, Chaudhary said, "There is no shock. We will review the results to understand the reasons. The India Alliance will remain strong." He added the party would learn from Bihar's verdict and SP workers in the state are already vigilant about the alleged "irregularities" in the SIR process, which has begun in UP with close attention from all political parties.

Chaudhary confidently asserted, "We will form the government in Uttar Pradesh in 2027 under Akhilesh Yadav's leadership. We will perform even better because the SP and the India Alliance have now become alert to the BJP's possible strategies." The 2024 Lok Sabha results indeed gave the opposition reasons for optimism. Despite inaugurating the grand Ram Temple just months earlier, the BJP lost the prestigious Faizabad (Ayodhya) seat to the SP, and the opposition never lost an opportunity to rub it in.

During the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP,” which had won 255 seats in the 2022 Assembly polls,” secured leads in only 162 Assembly segments. In contrast, the SP secured leads in 183 and the Congress in 40. These numbers had emboldened the opposition to stay united for the 2027 fight, with Akhilesh Yadav amplifying his PDA (backward, Dalit, minority) strategy.

Yet, the Bihar mandate altered the mood overnight. Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya said, "Magadh has won, Awadh will win too. We will repeat 2017 in 2027!" referring to the BJP's historic win of 325 out of 403 seats in 2017 under his leadership as state party president.

Political experts attribute the NDA's resounding success in Bihar to the BJP's ability to maintain cohesion among allies, especially keeping Chief Minister Nitish Kumar firmly on its side. Analyst Rajiv Ranjan Singh predicts that the Bihar results will push Uttar Pradesh allies -- Apna Dal (S), SBSP, NISHAD and RLD --” to stay firmly aligned with the BJP, burying their occasional anti-BJP rhetoric.

He also hinted that the INDIA bloc may face internal strain after Bihar results.

State Congress president Ajay Rai, however, maintained caution, saying, "It is too early to comment. We will examine everything in detail." Leaders from Uttar Pradesh played a significant role in the Bihar campaign.

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath addressed 30 rallies across 10 days and even held a roadshow in Darbhanga. Deputy CM Maurya also campaigned extensively.

BJP state president Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary hailed the Bihar result as proof of PM Modi's development-oriented governance and welfare schemes, asserting that the NDA will create a "new record" in Uttar Pradesh in 2027. PTI AR CDN MNK MNK