Surplus post-monsoon rainfall likely in India, northwest to see warmer October

New Delhi, Sep 30 (PTI) Most parts of India, except some areas in the northwest, are likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the post-monsoon season of October to December, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

The four-month southwest monsoon season ended on Tuesday with the country recording eight per cent above normal rainfall.

At an online press conference, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said most regions are expected to get above-normal rainfall in the October-December period, while parts of northwest India may see normal to below-normal showers.

He said rainfall in October is expected to be 15 per cent higher than normal, following the abundant rains during June-September.

"Maximum temperatures are expected to remain below normal in October in the northern plains, central and peninsular India. They will be above normal in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh and the Saurashtra and Kutch regions of Gujarat," Mohapatra said.

India received 937.2 mm of rain against the normal of 868.6 mm this monsoon season, a surplus of 8 per cent.

East and northeast India recorded 1,089.9 mm rainfall, 20 per cent below the normal of 1,367.3 mm. Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya saw deficient rainfall in three of the four monsoon months.

"Rainfall over east and northeast India this season was the second lowest since 1901. The lowest was in 2013 (1,065.7 mm). Studies show rainfall in this region has decreased over the last two decades," Mohapatra said.

Northwest India recorded 747.9 mm, 27.3 per cent above normal, the highest since 2001 and the sixth highest since 1901. All districts in the region saw above-normal rain in June, August and September.

"Rainfall over northwest India has increased in recent years and this needs to be studied to ascertain the reasons," he said.

Punjab witnessed its worst flooding in decades, while Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir reported cloudbursts, flash floods and landslides that damaged infrastructure and displaced people.

The IMD attributed the surplus rain to active monsoon conditions supported by frequent western disturbances that enhanced rainfall over the region.

Central India received 1,125.3 mm rainfall, 15.1 per cent above normal, while the southern peninsula recorded 9.9 per cent surplus.

India saw 8.9 per cent above-normal rainfall in June, 4.8 per cent in July, 5.2 per cent in August and 15.3 per cent in September.

Mohapatra attributed the high September rainfall to neutral ENSO conditions with sea surface temperatures close to La Nina thresholds, which favoured good rainfall activity. Four low-pressure systems formed in September.

This year's monsoon saw 18 low-pressure systems and 69 system days, against the average of 13 systems and 55 days.

The monsoon set in over Kerala on May 24, its earliest arrival since 2009, and covered the entire country by June 29, nine days ahead of the normal July 8.

Withdrawal began two days early from northwest India but is expected to be delayed by a week in central, east and northeast India due to new low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, the IMD chief said.

The monsoon is vital for agriculture, which supports about 42 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the GDP. It also replenishes reservoirs crucial for drinking water and power generation. PTI GVS ZMN